SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...
...SUMMARY...
A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern
and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage
and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A
marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of
west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley.
...Southern and Central Plains...
An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and
central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet
translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low
will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front
advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and
the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma
into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level
moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with
surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Moderate instability will develop
along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate
during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the
stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central
Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with
discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma
north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon
and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the
late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward
into the Ozarks.
In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level
jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central
Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level
lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail.
Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the
more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically
increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55
knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the
west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear
will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at
00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative
helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a
result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant
supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind
damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with
supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments
that organize.
A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and
early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and
west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage
should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening.
..Broyles.. 04/30/2022
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