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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, April 30, 2022

SPC Apr 30, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Sat Apr 30 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A severe threat is expected to develop on Monday over the southern and central Plains eastward into the Ozarks. Large hail, wind damage and tornadoes will be possible Monday afternoon and evening. A marginal severe threat will also be possible across parts of west-central Texas and in the western Tennessee Valley. ...Southern and Central Plains... An upper-level trough will move eastward across the southern and central Plains on Monday, as a 50 to 60 knot mid-level jet translates through the base of the trough. At the surface, a low will move southeastward into northwestern Oklahoma as a cold front advances southeastward into central Kansas, northwest Oklahoma and the Texas Panhandle. A dryline will be located from western Oklahoma into northwest Texas with a warm front in eastern Kansas. Low-level moisture advection will increase across the moist sector with surface dewpoints climbing into the lower to mid 60s F from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. Moderate instability will develop along this corridor by afternoon. Convection is forecast to initiate during the late afternoon along the western and northern edge of the stronger instability from west-central Oklahoma into south-central Kansas. A southwest-to-northeast broken line of severe storms, with discrete elements, is expected to organize from central Oklahoma north-northeastward into southeast Kansas during the late afternoon and early evening. The severe threat will likely continue to the late evening and early overnight period as the storms move eastward into the Ozarks. In addition to a favorable thermodynamic environment, the mid-level jet will created moderate to strong deep-layer shear from central Oklahoma into southeast Kansas. This combined with steep mid-level lapse rates will be very favorable for supercells with large hail. Hailstones of greater than 2 inches in diameter may occur with the more intense updrafts. Also, low-level shear will dramatically increase during the late afternoon and early evening, as a 45 to 55 knot low-level jet strengthens across northeastern Oklahoma. To the west and northwest of the low-level jet, lift and low-level shear will become very favorable for tornadoes. NAM forecast soundings at 00Z/Tuesday near Perry, Oklahoma have 0-3 km storm relative helicities near 450 m2/s2 with long and looped hodographs. As a result, strong tornadoes will be possible with the more dominant supercells, and a long-track damaging tornado will be possible. Wind damage will also be likely with the downdrafts associated with supercells, and along the leading edge of any short line segments that organize. A severe threat will also be possible during the late afternoon and early evening across southwest Oklahoma, northwest Texas and west-central Texas. But any threat for large hail and wind damage should remain isolated there from late afternoon to the mid evening. ..Broyles.. 04/30/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SPWkt7