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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 3, 2022

SPC Apr 3, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0248 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 032000Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A strong to marginally severe storm or two may also evolve across far southern Florida. ...Discussion... Little change to the ongoing outlook appears necessary at this time, with forecast reasoning with the thunder and severe-weather areas still reflective of the ongoing evolution. Isolated severe storms still appear likely to develop across parts of the southern Plains risk area late this afternoon/early this evening, with no changes required to the areas at this time. A severe storm or two may yet evolve over far southern Florida, where deepening cumulus -- and development couple of CBs -- is ongoing. The area has been reduced in size, to focus on the area where a severe storm is most likely over the next few hours. ..Goss.. 04/03/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/ ...Southwest OK to west TX... As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points, yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone across OK. ...Southeast FL... Given an initial boundary surge through the tip of the peninsula, yielding light low-level northwesterlies behind it per VWPs and surface observations, uncertainty exists in whether isolated thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. While weaknesses will persist in the low-level hodograph, adequate mid to upper speed shear within a westerly deep-layer flow regime could support a transient supercell affecting the greater Miami metro area. With moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km as sampled by the 12Z MFL sounding, marginally severe hail will be possible, in addition to locally damaging winds from strong gusts. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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