SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0248 PM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND ADJACENT WESTERN NORTH TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts and hail are most likely across parts of
southwest Oklahoma into west Texas, centered on 5 to 10 PM CDT. A
strong to marginally severe storm or two may also evolve across far
southern Florida.
...Discussion...
Little change to the ongoing outlook appears necessary at this time,
with forecast reasoning with the thunder and severe-weather areas
still reflective of the ongoing evolution.
Isolated severe storms still appear likely to develop across parts
of the southern Plains risk area late this afternoon/early this
evening, with no changes required to the areas at this time.
A severe storm or two may yet evolve over far southern Florida,
where deepening cumulus -- and development couple of CBs -- is
ongoing. The area has been reduced in size, to focus on the area
where a severe storm is most likely over the next few hours.
..Goss.. 04/03/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022/
...Southwest OK to west TX...
As a triple-point cyclone becomes established near KCDS, isolated
thunderstorms are expected to develop in the early evening just
ahead of this low in southwest OK and to the south-southwest of a
wavy dryline towards the Lower Pecos Valley of west TX. A deep
well-mixed boundary layer is expected near the dryline as surface
temperatures warm through the mid 80s to low 90s. Modified moisture
return will be limited to upper 40s to mid 50s surface dew points,
yielding a confined plume of modest buoyancy with 600-1200 J/kg
MLCAPE amid steep lapse rates. Effective bulk shear increasing to
around 40 kts near the triple point should foster a threat for a
couple high-based supercells. Otherwise, more muted deep-layer shear
along the dryline should tend to favor transient supercell/multicell
structures. Isolated severe wind gusts appear to be the most
probable hazard, but a few severe hail events are also possible. The
severe threat will wane after dusk as MLCIN rapidly increases given
the relatively dry boundary layer, despite elevated convection
likely increasing tonight in vicinity of the surface frontal zone
across OK.
...Southeast FL...
Given an initial boundary surge through the tip of the peninsula,
yielding light low-level northwesterlies behind it per VWPs and
surface observations, uncertainty exists in whether isolated
thunderstorms will develop in the late afternoon. While weaknesses
will persist in the low-level hodograph, adequate mid to upper speed
shear within a westerly deep-layer flow regime could support a
transient supercell affecting the greater Miami metro area. With
moderate mid-level lapse rates of 6.5-7.0 C/km as sampled by the 12Z
MFL sounding, marginally severe hail will be possible, in addition
to locally damaging winds from strong gusts.
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