SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 051200Z - 061200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SC...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will exist
across portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday,
especially from the central Gulf Coast into central/southern Georgia
and southern South Carolina. Strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes
will be possible.
...Deep South into the Carolinas...
A somewhat broad, low-amplitude midlevel trough will shift
east/northeast from the lower MS Valley vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic
on Tuesday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with
this system will persist across the southern/southeastern states,
with a large warm sector expected over the region. Thunderstorms are
likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions
of the Lower MS Valley. This, in conjunction with somewhat nebulous
surface features and possibly widespread cloudiness/precipitation,
is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. However,
at least modest destabilization is expected downstream of morning
thunderstorm activity and ahead of the midlevel trough from the
central Gulf Coast into parts of GA/SC. Morning convection will
shift into this area as a southwesterly low-level jet increases
through the afternoon/evening. Strong vertical shear will support
rotating storms, though storm mode may be messy, with a mix of
clusters and line segments. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes
appear possible as convection shifts east/northeast during the day
and into the evening. The northward extent of the severe threat
across the Carolinas remains uncertain, as precipitation may outpace
boundary-layer destabilization.
...Southeast OK/Northeast TX...
A conditional severe threat could develop late in the period across
southeast OK/northeast TX as another midlevel trough develops
east/southeast across the Plains. Forecast guidance varies
considerably regarding convective development ahead of a
southeastward-surging cold front. Persistent southerly flow will
maintain a moist airmass over the region, but an EML base around 850
mb will be present. Some guidance suggests isolated, elevated storms
could develop, posing a threat for large hail. Uncertainty remains
too high to include probabilities at this time, but may become
necessary in future outlooks if potential becomes more certain.
..Leitman.. 04/03/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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