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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 3, 2022

SPC Apr 3, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0225 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL GULF COAST INTO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN GA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN SC... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of strong to severe thunderstorm potential will exist across portions of the southern and southeastern U.S. on Tuesday, especially from the central Gulf Coast into central/southern Georgia and southern South Carolina. Strong wind gusts and a few tornadoes will be possible. ...Deep South into the Carolinas... A somewhat broad, low-amplitude midlevel trough will shift east/northeast from the lower MS Valley vicinity to the Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday. Strong deep-layer southwesterly flow associated with this system will persist across the southern/southeastern states, with a large warm sector expected over the region. Thunderstorms are likely to be ongoing at the beginning of the period across portions of the Lower MS Valley. This, in conjunction with somewhat nebulous surface features and possibly widespread cloudiness/precipitation, is resulting in quite a bit of uncertainty in the forecast. However, at least modest destabilization is expected downstream of morning thunderstorm activity and ahead of the midlevel trough from the central Gulf Coast into parts of GA/SC. Morning convection will shift into this area as a southwesterly low-level jet increases through the afternoon/evening. Strong vertical shear will support rotating storms, though storm mode may be messy, with a mix of clusters and line segments. Damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible as convection shifts east/northeast during the day and into the evening. The northward extent of the severe threat across the Carolinas remains uncertain, as precipitation may outpace boundary-layer destabilization. ...Southeast OK/Northeast TX... A conditional severe threat could develop late in the period across southeast OK/northeast TX as another midlevel trough develops east/southeast across the Plains. Forecast guidance varies considerably regarding convective development ahead of a southeastward-surging cold front. Persistent southerly flow will maintain a moist airmass over the region, but an EML base around 850 mb will be present. Some guidance suggests isolated, elevated storms could develop, posing a threat for large hail. Uncertainty remains too high to include probabilities at this time, but may become necessary in future outlooks if potential becomes more certain. ..Leitman.. 04/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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