SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022
Valid 031200Z - 041200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA
INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest
Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind
gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of
strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida
Peninsula.
...Synopsis...
Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level
shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of
weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching
the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River
Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee
cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by
this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains
through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low.
The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western
Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will
strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55
F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon.
...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas...
Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak
surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast
NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed
Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with
around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through
the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens
lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a
steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry
microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will
move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer
moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large
hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight
hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential.
...Southern Florida...
A diffuse cold front will gradually sag south across central to
southern FL this afternoon. Despite early morning showers and cloud
cover, mid-level dry air on the backside of the departing
upper-level wave should allow for partially clearing skies by early
to mid afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating
between broken cloud cover should be sufficient to support 500-1000
J/kg MLCAPE. Upper-level winds will gradually weaken through the
day, but should remain strong enough to support effective bulk shear
values between 30-40 knots, which may support storm organization.
Storm coverage may be limited due to weak forcing for ascent, but a
few robust storms are possible and may pose a hail/wind risk.
..Moore/Smith.. 04/03/2022
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