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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 3, 2022

SPC Apr 3, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1221 AM CDT Sun Apr 03 2022 Valid 031200Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of southwest Oklahoma into western Texas this afternoon and evening. Severe wind gusts and large hail will be possible with these storms. A couple of strong storms are also possible across the southern Florida Peninsula. ...Synopsis... Early-morning water vapor imagery reveals a prominent upper-level shortwave trough transversing the Great Lakes region, with a pair of weaker disturbances noted over the northern Rockies and approaching the southern CA coast. A weak surface low over the upper OH River Valley will migrate into the Northeast through the day while a lee cyclone over the northern High Plains will shift into the Plains by this evening. A lee trough/dryline will mix eastward into the Plains through the afternoon in tandem with the northern High Plains low. The combination of the falling surface pressure across the western Plains and a modest lee cyclone over the southern High Plains will strengthen southeasterly flow off the TX Gulf coast, spreading 50-55 F dewpoints into west TX and southwestern OK by late afternoon. ...Southwest Oklahoma into southwest Texas... Thunderstorm development appears likely in the vicinity of a weak surface low and along the surface trough/dryline, from southeast NM/west TX into western OK around peak heating. The observed Saturday evening Midland, TX RAOB reveals a dry boundary layer with around 7 C/km lapse rates aloft, which should be maintained through the day as weak broad scale ascent ahead of the CA wave steepens lapse rates. Initial storms are forecast to develop in a steep-lapse-rate environment, which may support a few dry microbursts across southwest TX. Loosely organized convection will move east by late afternoon/early evening into richer boundary-layer moisture as flow aloft strengthens. Consequently, the risk for large hail will accompany the more intense updrafts. Into the overnight hours, waning instability will diminish the severe potential. ...Southern Florida... A diffuse cold front will gradually sag south across central to southern FL this afternoon. Despite early morning showers and cloud cover, mid-level dry air on the backside of the departing upper-level wave should allow for partially clearing skies by early to mid afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture and daytime heating between broken cloud cover should be sufficient to support 500-1000 J/kg MLCAPE. Upper-level winds will gradually weaken through the day, but should remain strong enough to support effective bulk shear values between 30-40 knots, which may support storm organization. Storm coverage may be limited due to weak forcing for ascent, but a few robust storms are possible and may pose a hail/wind risk. ..Moore/Smith.. 04/03/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC