SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0253 PM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 022000Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated damaging winds and large hail remain possible across mainly
central parts of the Florida Peninsula into this evening.
...20Z Update...
A leading-line/trailing stratiform MCS continues to propagate
southeast across the central FL Peninsula, accompanied by an
isolated damaging gust/occasional large hail threat. The primary
changes made to the outlook were to trim the northern extent of the
severe probabilities/thunder line to match the latest position of
the MCS. Storms should gradually weaken this evening as boundary
layer cooling sets in.
..Squitieri.. 04/02/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022/
...Central FL and vicinity...
Initial warm-conveyor-driven cluster spreading farther inland across
the north-central portion of the peninsula may intensify as it
impinges on the destabilizing air mass to its south/east. This will
pose a threat for damaging winds from strong to locally severe
gusts, along with marginally severe hail. More probable severe
potential will likely emanate across the east-central portion of the
peninsula where discrete convection should develop in the next few
hours near the sea breeze. Here, more abundant MLCAPE (around 2000
J/kg) and strong mid to upper-level speed shear should foster a few
supercells. Weak low-level winds will limit hodograph curvature and
greater tornado potential, but mid-level updraft rotation will be
favorable for large hail, in addition to locally damaging winds.
It remains plausible that an organized cluster farther southwest
over the north-central/northeast Gulf may approach the west-central
to southwest portion of the peninsula during the early to
mid-evening time frame. However, some CAM guidance suggests this
activity will weaken over the cooler waters east of the Loop
Current, and large-scale ascent should be in a diminishing trend
with the primary shortwave impulse quickly moving east towards the
Carolinas.
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