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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, April 2, 2022

SPC Apr 2, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0253 PM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 022000Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EAST-CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds and large hail remain possible across mainly central parts of the Florida Peninsula into this evening. ...20Z Update... A leading-line/trailing stratiform MCS continues to propagate southeast across the central FL Peninsula, accompanied by an isolated damaging gust/occasional large hail threat. The primary changes made to the outlook were to trim the northern extent of the severe probabilities/thunder line to match the latest position of the MCS. Storms should gradually weaken this evening as boundary layer cooling sets in. ..Squitieri.. 04/02/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1128 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022/ ...Central FL and vicinity... Initial warm-conveyor-driven cluster spreading farther inland across the north-central portion of the peninsula may intensify as it impinges on the destabilizing air mass to its south/east. This will pose a threat for damaging winds from strong to locally severe gusts, along with marginally severe hail. More probable severe potential will likely emanate across the east-central portion of the peninsula where discrete convection should develop in the next few hours near the sea breeze. Here, more abundant MLCAPE (around 2000 J/kg) and strong mid to upper-level speed shear should foster a few supercells. Weak low-level winds will limit hodograph curvature and greater tornado potential, but mid-level updraft rotation will be favorable for large hail, in addition to locally damaging winds. It remains plausible that an organized cluster farther southwest over the north-central/northeast Gulf may approach the west-central to southwest portion of the peninsula during the early to mid-evening time frame. However, some CAM guidance suggests this activity will weaken over the cooler waters east of the Loop Current, and large-scale ascent should be in a diminishing trend with the primary shortwave impulse quickly moving east towards the Carolinas. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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