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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, April 28, 2022

SPC Apr 28, 2022 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1120 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Valid 281630Z - 291200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF WESTERN NEBRASKA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across a portion of the central states arcing into the northeast Great Basin this afternoon through tonight. Within this broader regime, greatest confidence for severe hail exists across the Nebraska Panhandle during the late evening to early overnight. A broad upper ridge is present today over much of the Plains and Midwest states, with several small/weak shortwave troughs traversing the ridge from WY/CO into KS/OK/TX. None of these features are likely to result in organized severe storm activity, but several areas may see isolated intense convection later today and tonight. ...Northeast OK/southeast KS... In the wake of morning convection, a surface outflow boundary currently extends across central/eastern OK. Southerly low-level winds over this boundary will likely result in re-development of a few thunderstorms this afternoon over parts of northeast OK and southeast KS. Isolated severe storms are possible with hail and gusty winds possible. ...West TX... A relatively strong surface dryline is expected to develop this afternoon from the eastern TX Panhandle southward to the Davis Mountains. Model guidance varies significantly on the odds of initiation along the dryline this afternoon, but a few 12z CAMS do show strong cells affecting the area between 22-03z. Large hail and damaging winds will be possible with any storms that can form. ...Southeast ID into southern WY... A stronger shortwave trough is forecast to move across UT and affect parts of ID/UT this afternoon. Scattered mostly high-based thunderstorms are forecast to develop across this region after 20z, with the stronger cells capable of gusty winds and some hail. Limited low-level moisture will suppress a more significant severe event. ...Western NE... Tonight, forcing from the aforementioned shortwave trough will begin to impinge on the western edge of greater low-level moisture over the NE Panhandle. This will likely lead to intensifying thunderstorms (mainly after 05z) spreading across the SLGT risk area. This scenario is a little more confident than the others, so will maintain the SLGT risk category. Hail and wind are possible as the line of storms moves toward central NE overnight. ..Hart/Lyons.. 04/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)