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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, April 28, 2022

SPC Apr 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...WESTERN INDIANA...WESTERN KY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TN... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of the Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. All severe hazards will be possible with these storms. ...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys... A mid/upper level trough over the central Plains/lower Missouri Valley will develop east/northeast across Mid/Upper Mississippi Valley on Saturday. As this occurs, strong southwesterly deep-layer flow will overspread the region. A plume of steep midlevel lapse rates also will reside over the region at least through the 00-03z period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing cold front will transport mainly low 60s F dewpoints as far north as southern WI and southwest Lower MI. A surface low is forecast to be over western IA Saturday morning, while weakening as it develops northeast toward northern WI by the end of the period. The cold front will sweep eastward across eastern MO/IL, becoming positioned from western Lower MI to western TN/southern AR by Sunday morning. Moderate destabilization ahead of the cold front is expected as some early day clouds and showers should diminish/shift east. Forecast soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs amid 40-50 kt effective shear magnitudes, supporting initial supercells across parts of east-central/southeast MO, northeast AR and portions of IL. Large hail and a few tornadoes appear possible with this initial activity. With time, some upscale development into a QLCS appears likely as deep-layer flow becomes uni-directional and parallel to the cold front. However, speed shear in the lowest couple of kilometers suggest that mesovortex development will be possible along the line. If a transition to a QLCS/broken line segments occurs, the damaging wind threat also will increase with a couple tornadoes possible into the evening/nighttime hours across eastern portions of the outlook area. ..Leitman.. 04/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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