SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 011200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHEAST ARKANSAS...SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...MUCH OF ILLINOIS...WESTERN
INDIANA...WESTERN KY AND EXTREME NORTHWEST TN...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible on Saturday across portions of the
Middle Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys. All severe hazards will
be possible with these storms.
...Mid-MS/Lower OH Valleys...
A mid/upper level trough over the central Plains/lower Missouri
Valley will develop east/northeast across Mid/Upper Mississippi
Valley on Saturday. As this occurs, strong southwesterly deep-layer
flow will overspread the region. A plume of steep midlevel lapse
rates also will reside over the region at least through the 00-03z
period. Southerly low-level flow ahead of an eastward-advancing cold
front will transport mainly low 60s F dewpoints as far north as
southern WI and southwest Lower MI. A surface low is forecast to be
over western IA Saturday morning, while weakening as it develops
northeast toward northern WI by the end of the period. The cold
front will sweep eastward across eastern MO/IL, becoming positioned
from western Lower MI to western TN/southern AR by Sunday morning.
Moderate destabilization ahead of the cold front is expected as some
early day clouds and showers should diminish/shift east. Forecast
soundings indicate enlarged low-level hodographs amid 40-50 kt
effective shear magnitudes, supporting initial supercells across
parts of east-central/southeast MO, northeast AR and portions of IL.
Large hail and a few tornadoes appear possible with this initial
activity. With time, some upscale development into a QLCS appears
likely as deep-layer flow becomes uni-directional and parallel to
the cold front. However, speed shear in the lowest couple of
kilometers suggest that mesovortex development will be possible
along the line. If a transition to a QLCS/broken line segments
occurs, the damaging wind threat also will increase with a couple
tornadoes possible into the evening/nighttime hours across eastern
portions of the outlook area.
..Leitman.. 04/28/2022
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