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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, April 28, 2022

SPC Apr 28, 2022 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 PM CDT Thu Apr 28 2022 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF FAR SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA INTO CENTRAL/EASTERN KANSAS AND NORTH-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms capable of all hazards are possible Friday afternoon into Friday night across portions of the southern and central Plains into the lower Missouri Valley. ...Synopsis... Very little change in the overall thinking of the forecast compared to the earlier Day 2 outlook issuance. A strong mid- to upper-level speed max will quickly move southeast from the eastern Great Basin into the central/southern Plains during the period. In the low levels, a surface low initially over the central High Plains will develop east into central KS by mid afternoon before moving to southeast SD by daybreak Saturday. A triple point over KS during the day will feature a north-south dryline into the southern Great Plains near/immediately west of the OK I-35 corridor. A cold front will push east/southeast across KS and into OK Friday night. ...Southern NE south to OK/north TX... Model guidance continues to show run-to-run consistency in the evolution of a mid-level shortwave trough into the region during the afternoon/evening. Increasing southerly low-level flow will advect moisture northward beneath a stout capping inversion, as a warm sector destabilizes from near the triple point southward along/east of the dryline and becomes moderately to very unstable by early/mid afternoon. Models show surface dewpoints into the lower to mid 60s F over the central Great Plains to the mid-upper 60s from southern KS southward. Increasing large-scale ascent will overspread this region, with 30-60 m 12/hr 500 mb height falls expected by early evening from I-40 in central OK northward into NE. Scattered thunderstorms are forecast to develop as the cap erodes initially near the triple point and a severe risk accompanying the stronger storms. A couple of tornadoes and large to very large hail will be the primary threats with these storms. Farther south from south-central KS into parts of north TX, storm coverage will likely become increasingly isolated, especially south of I-40. However, impressive combination of low- to mid-level flow (700 mb flow 40-50 kt) amidst a very unstable boundary layer, will conditionally support a very favorable environment for discrete supercells. Very large to potentially giant hail (2-3+ inches in diameter) will probably occur with any sustained storm (i.e., supercell). Hail, along with the possibility for a couple of tornadoes (perhaps an intense tornado), are expected beginning late in the afternoon through the early-mid evening. Main questions at this time include both storm coverage and moisture quality with the latter playing a critical role in both storm coverage and tornado potential. By early evening, coalescing of storms over KS/NE will likely lead to upscale growth with some of these storms likely developing along the front during the evening. Hail/wind will likely evolve to be the main threats late in the evening with this risk perhaps lingering into the overnight. ...Portions of northwest KS into western/central NE... Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to develop near the deepening surface low across northwest KS by mid-afternoon. Boundary-layer moisture will be lower quality compared to further east, with dewpoints in the 50s to near 60 F. However, very steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate instability. Effective bulk shear values will support initial supercells capable of large to very large hail. With time, this convection may develop into bowing line segments as convection shifts northeast into NE. ..Smith.. 04/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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