SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0259 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022
Valid 272000Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHT RISK OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts and some severe hail will be possible
this afternoon and evening from western Kansas and southeast
Colorado southward to the Trans-Pecos of Texas, and also across
eastern Idaho and western Wyoming.
...20Z Update...
No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated thunderstorms
have developed from southeast CO into eastern NM. These storms will
pose a localized threat of hail and severe gusts for the remainder
of this afternoon as they move eastward. A cluster of storms may
form by early evening and move across southwest KS into the
OK/northern TX Panhandles, with a continued threat of strong/severe
gusts. Isolated strong storms also remain possible from eastern ID
into western WY. See the previous discussion below for more
information.
..Dean.. 04/27/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/
...Southern High Plains...
Have introduced a Slight Risk for a sub-regional semi-focused
corridor of probable MCS development across southwest Kansas and
parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. An ejecting mid-level
impulse nearing the Four Corners at midday will influence the
south-central High Plains by peak heating, with initial thunderstorm
development in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos and near the Raton
Mesa.
A belt of enhanced mid-level winds (35-40 kt at 500 mb) will help
sustain convection and likely influence increasingly
organized/strong storms as they encounter a corridor of somewhat
greater low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy that will reside
from the western/northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma
Panhandle and southwest Kansas. A few instances of severe hail are
possible, but strong/severe-caliber wind gusts are expected to
become the primary hazard by early evening owing to a warm/dry
boundary layer and steep lapse rate environment. An early evening
strengthening of a south-southwesterly low-level jet should
contribute to east-southeastward persistence of at least a loosely
organized MCS across the northern Texas Panhandle/eastern Texas
Panhandle and far southeast Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Overall
storm intensity will tend to diminish by the late evening hours.
Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are likely off the Sacramentos
of southeast New Mexico to the Texas Trans-Pecos where buoyancy will
be greater with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Veering of the wind
profile with height should be adequate for 30-35 kt effective bulk
shear. This may support a spatially and temporally limited period of
a few weak, slow-moving supercells. These would pose a threat for
isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts.
...Eastern Idaho/western Wyoming...
A couple of stronger/locally severe storms could occur this
afternoon across the region, influenced by an
east/northeastward-moving low amplitude shortwave trough. A few
stronger wind gusts would appear to be the primary hazard.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SPMrJ0
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MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).
Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.
CONVECTIVE | TORNADO | WIND | HAIL
Wednesday, April 27, 2022
SPC Apr 27, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SUNRISE AND SUNSET TIMES IN UTC (if you're not logged in to Google)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)
CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)