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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, April 27, 2022

SPC Apr 27, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Valid 272000Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts and some severe hail will be possible this afternoon and evening from western Kansas and southeast Colorado southward to the Trans-Pecos of Texas, and also across eastern Idaho and western Wyoming. ...20Z Update... No changes have been made to the outlook. Isolated thunderstorms have developed from southeast CO into eastern NM. These storms will pose a localized threat of hail and severe gusts for the remainder of this afternoon as they move eastward. A cluster of storms may form by early evening and move across southwest KS into the OK/northern TX Panhandles, with a continued threat of strong/severe gusts. Isolated strong storms also remain possible from eastern ID into western WY. See the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 04/27/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022/ ...Southern High Plains... Have introduced a Slight Risk for a sub-regional semi-focused corridor of probable MCS development across southwest Kansas and parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. An ejecting mid-level impulse nearing the Four Corners at midday will influence the south-central High Plains by peak heating, with initial thunderstorm development in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos and near the Raton Mesa. A belt of enhanced mid-level winds (35-40 kt at 500 mb) will help sustain convection and likely influence increasingly organized/strong storms as they encounter a corridor of somewhat greater low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy that will reside from the western/northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. A few instances of severe hail are possible, but strong/severe-caliber wind gusts are expected to become the primary hazard by early evening owing to a warm/dry boundary layer and steep lapse rate environment. An early evening strengthening of a south-southwesterly low-level jet should contribute to east-southeastward persistence of at least a loosely organized MCS across the northern Texas Panhandle/eastern Texas Panhandle and far southeast Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Overall storm intensity will tend to diminish by the late evening hours. Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are likely off the Sacramentos of southeast New Mexico to the Texas Trans-Pecos where buoyancy will be greater with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Veering of the wind profile with height should be adequate for 30-35 kt effective bulk shear. This may support a spatially and temporally limited period of a few weak, slow-moving supercells. These would pose a threat for isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts. ...Eastern Idaho/western Wyoming... A couple of stronger/locally severe storms could occur this afternoon across the region, influenced by an east/northeastward-moving low amplitude shortwave trough. A few stronger wind gusts would appear to be the primary hazard. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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