SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1130 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022
Valid 271630Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts and some severe hail will be possible
this afternoon and evening from western Kansas and southeast
Colorado southward to the Trans-Pecos of Texas.
...Southern High Plains...
Have introduced a Slight Risk for a sub-regional semi-focused
corridor of probable MCS development across southwest Kansas and
parts of the Oklahoma/Texas Panhandles. An ejecting mid-level
impulse nearing the Four Corners at midday will influence the
south-central High Plains by peak heating, with initial thunderstorm
development in the lee of the Sangre de Cristos and near the Raton
Mesa.
A belt of enhanced mid-level winds (35-40 kt at 500 mb) will help
sustain convection and likely influence increasingly
organized/strong storms as they encounter a corridor of somewhat
greater low-level moisture and moderate buoyancy that will reside
from the western/northern Texas Panhandle into the Oklahoma
Panhandle and southwest Kansas. A few instances of severe hail are
possible, but strong/severe-caliber wind gusts are expected to
become the primary hazard by early evening owing to a warm/dry
boundary layer and steep lapse rate environment. An early evening
strengthening of a south-southwesterly low-level jet should
contribute to east-southeastward persistence of at least a loosely
organized MCS across the northern Texas Panhandle/eastern Texas
Panhandle and far southeast Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. Overall
storm intensity will tend to diminish by the late evening hours.
Farther south, isolated thunderstorms are likely off the Sacramentos
of southeast New Mexico to the Texas Trans-Pecos where buoyancy will
be greater with MLCAPE nearing 1000 J/kg. Veering of the wind
profile with height should be adequate for 30-35 kt effective bulk
shear. This may support a spatially and temporally limited period of
a few weak, slow-moving supercells. These would pose a threat for
isolated severe hail and locally strong gusts.
...Eastern Idaho/western Wyoming...
A couple of stronger/locally severe storms could occur this
afternoon across the region, influenced by an
east/northeastward-moving low amplitude shortwave trough. A few
stronger wind gusts would appear to be the primary hazard.
..Guyer/Lyons.. 04/27/2022
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