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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Wednesday, April 27, 2022

SPC Apr 27, 2022 Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0355 AM CDT Wed Apr 27 2022 Valid 301200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... A somewhat progressive upper pattern will develop across the CONUS for the last day of April and into the first week of May. This will foster multiple days of severe potential across parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and the southern Plains vicinity. ...Day 4/Sat - Middle Mississippi Valley Vicinity... A closed upper low and attendant trough will develop eastward from the central Plains to the upper/middle MS Valley. A surface low over southeast SD will migrate eastward along the IA/MN border through early Sunday while a cold front develops eastward across eastern MO through the day and into eastern IL by Sunday morning. Ahead of the front, low to mid 60s F dewpoints beneath modestly steep midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Vertical wind profiles will be mostly unidirectional, though some modest backed low-level winds are possible across the northern portions of the 15 percent risk area. At this time, a linear storm mode appears most likely, given deep-layer unidirectional flow parallel to the surface front. Nevertheless, some semi-discrete storms could develop ahead of the front early in storm evolution and all severe hazards appear possible. ...Day 5/Sun - TX South Plains to Concho Valley Vicinity... A weak mid/upper shortwave impulse is forecast to spread eastward from the southern Rockies into west TX Sunday afternoon. This will induce weak surface cyclogenesis over eastern NM. Southeasterly low-level flow will transport 60s F dewpoints across the region ahead of a south to north oriented dryline across far west TX. Isolated supercells capable of large hail and strong gusts appear likely during the afternoon and evening. The northward extent of the threat is a bit uncertain as a large area of warm advection showers and thunderstorms may be ongoing Sunday morning and persist through the day across parts of the TX Panhandle into northwest TX/southwest OK. ...Day 6/Mon - Southern Plains Vicinity... Medium range guidance is in fairly good agreement that a stronger/more compact mid/upper shortwave trough will spread east across the southern/central Plains on Monday. There is some uncertainty on the northward extent of the severe threat, and adjustments to the 15 percent area may be needed in future outlooks. Nevertheless, the overall pattern suggests favorable conditions for severe thunderstorms are possible as strong vertical shear overspreads a very moist and unstable airmass. A surface low will develop east across OK, with a dryline extending southward into central TX. Supercells capable of all severe hazards appear possible at this time. ...Days 7-8/Tue-Wed... Predictability becomes quite low as forecast uncertainty increases markedly by the end of the period. Some severe threat will likely develop somewhere from the southern/central Plains toward the MS Valley, but deterministic and ensemble guidance varies in timing and location of a potential western trough ejecting eastward. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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