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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, April 25, 2022

SPC Apr 25, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0250 PM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Valid 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF COASTAL/SOUTH TEXAS...AND THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE/OHIO VALLEYS AND WESTERN NEW YORK... ...SUMMARY... Isolated damaging winds remain possible from the Lower Great Lakes to south Texas this afternoon and early evening. Isolated severe hail may also occur in south Texas. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been trimmed behind an ongoing band of thunderstorms extending across TX into the Southeast. Isolated strong/gusty winds and hail will remain possible as this convection sags southward across parts of coastal/south TX through the rest of the afternoon and continuing into the evening. Farther north, low-topped convection extends from the TN Valley into the OH Valley along and ahead of a cold front. With stronger mid-level flow present over these regions and steepened low-level lapse rates, occasional damaging winds should continue to be the main threat as this activity spreads eastward over the next few hours. See Mesoscale Discussion 563 for more information on the near-term severe threat across OH into northwestern PA and western NY. ..Gleason.. 04/25/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022/ ...Central/south Texas to Louisiana/Mississippi... Scattered to numerous convection parallels a cold front that will generally continue to settle south-southeastward across the region today. A few stronger storms could be focused across southeast Texas, southern Louisiana, and/or southern Mississippi, but the most robust convection this afternoon will likely be focused across central/southern Texas, especially in the general vicinity of the Rio Grande. Rich boundary-layer moisture characterized by low 70s surface dew points will support a plume of 1500-2500 J/kg MLCAPE this afternoon near and ahead of the front. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to persist and intensify during the afternoon. This setup should yield several slow-moving multicell clusters capable of locally strong gusts along with isolated severe hail, particularly in closer proximity to the Rio Grande where mid-level lapse rates are steeper. ...Tennessee/Kentucky to the Lower Great Lakes... Scattered mostly weak convection generally coincides with an eastward-moving cold front. Upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints precede the front and associated convection, with an expanding/deepening pre-frontal cumulus field coincident with mid/high-level cloud breaks. This will likely allow for renewed thunderstorm development and intensification this afternoon, including areas spanning east-central Kentucky/Tennessee into Ohio, northwest Pennsylvania, and western New York. The strongest deep-layer winds will tend to lag the cold front, with an exception being in closer proximity to the Lower Great Lakes where stronger deep-layer winds/shear will exist within the warm sector. Sufficient boundary-layer warmth/destabilization and moderately strong low/mid-level winds will support the possibility of semi-organized clusters capable of localized wind damage through around sunset. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC