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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, April 25, 2022

SPC Apr 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1154 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Valid 261200Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING... ...SUMMARY... A few strong storms may produce gusty winds and small hail Tuesday afternoon and early evening across parts of central and eastern North Carolina into southeast Virginia. ...Central/Eastern NC into southeast VA... A mid/upper-level large-scale trough from the Upper Midwest to the Lower MS Valley will shift east to the central Appalachians and southeast Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Stronger deep-layer flow associated with the trough will remain across the Ohio Valley into the Northeast, becoming weaker with southward extent into the Carolinas and southeastern states. A surface cold front will extend from eastern NY/PA to central GA and the central Gulf coast. Modest boundary-layer moisture will exist ahead of the front with mid 50s to low 60s F dewpoints expected from GA into the Carolinas and southern Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Temperatures warming well into the 80s amid modest midlevel lapse rates will result in a narrow corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from central SC/NC into southeast VA, and may support a few strong thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon. Forecast soundings show quite a bit of mixing occurring ahead of the front, with LCLs around 850 mb, and steep low-level lapse rates. Westerly flow through 700 mb is forecast to remain very light, and effective bulk shear magnitudes marginal (25-35 kt). Nevertheless, couple with adequate instability and midlevel moisture, a couple of briefly organized cells capable of strong gusts and maybe small hail will be possible during the afternoon/early evening across parts of central/eastern NC into southeast VA. Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front into SC/GA, however vertical shear becomes quite weak with southward extent and organized severe storms are not expected at this time. ..Leitman.. 04/25/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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