SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1154 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
A few strong storms may produce gusty winds and small hail Tuesday
afternoon and early evening across parts of central and eastern
North Carolina into southeast Virginia.
...Central/Eastern NC into southeast VA...
A mid/upper-level large-scale trough from the Upper Midwest to the
Lower MS Valley will shift east to the central Appalachians and
southeast Atlantic coast on Tuesday. Stronger deep-layer flow
associated with the trough will remain across the Ohio Valley into
the Northeast, becoming weaker with southward extent into the
Carolinas and southeastern states. A surface cold front will extend
from eastern NY/PA to central GA and the central Gulf coast. Modest
boundary-layer moisture will exist ahead of the front with mid 50s
to low 60s F dewpoints expected from GA into the Carolinas and
southern Chesapeake Bay vicinity. Temperatures warming well into the
80s amid modest midlevel lapse rates will result in a narrow
corridor of 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE from central SC/NC into southeast
VA, and may support a few strong thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon.
Forecast soundings show quite a bit of mixing occurring ahead of the
front, with LCLs around 850 mb, and steep low-level lapse rates.
Westerly flow through 700 mb is forecast to remain very light, and
effective bulk shear magnitudes marginal (25-35 kt). Nevertheless,
couple with adequate instability and midlevel moisture, a couple of
briefly organized cells capable of strong gusts and maybe small hail
will be possible during the afternoon/early evening across parts of
central/eastern NC into southeast VA.
Additional thunderstorms are expected along the front into SC/GA,
however vertical shear becomes quite weak with southward extent and
organized severe storms are not expected at this time.
..Leitman.. 04/25/2022
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