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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, April 26, 2022

SPC Apr 26, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0255 PM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022 Valid 262000Z - 271200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA... ...SUMMARY... Sporadic damaging winds from locally strong gusts and small to marginally severe hail will remain possible late this afternoon across southern/eastern Virginia and parts of the Carolinas and eastern Georgia. ...20Z Update... The primary changes to the outlook at 20Z are to clear severe probabilities behind the cold front across parts of the Southeast and Mid Atlantic, and to restrict the 5% hail area to parts of southeast VA, where a few stronger discrete cells remain possible. Damaging wind and localized hail remain possible across southeast VA through the remainder of the afternoon, with a more isolated damaging-wind threat extending further southward into the Carolinas. See WW 155 and the previous outlook discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 04/26/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT Tue Apr 26 2022/ ...Southeast Virginia and Carolinas/eastern Georgia... Ample insolation is occurring across the region in Piedmont/coastal areas and east of the Blue Ridge with an expanding/deepening cumulus field coincident with temperatures reaching 80F in many locations by late morning. A late-morning increase in thunderstorms has already been noted near the eastward-advancing front, which largely parallels the mountains/Blue ridge at midday. As storms further develop/intensify, a well-mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates in conjunction with moderately strong southwesterly mid-level winds will support some stronger multicells capable of isolated wind damage and possibly some hail through late afternoon/early evening. That said, it appears that a more focused potential for wind damage/some hail will exist across southeast Virginia this afternoon. This will be in vicinity of a weak surface wave and the remnant wedge front/effective warm front. This corridor will also be under the influence of somewhat stronger cyclonically influenced low/mid-level flow. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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