SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS
TO THE OHIO VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Occasional strong to marginally-severe thunderstorms may produce
isolated damaging winds Monday from parts of the southern Plains
into the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley,
and western New York. Some hail may also occur.
...Discussion...
A belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will gradually shift
downstream and extend from the southern Plains-OH Valley by early
afternoon. Deep southwesterly flow will dominate this corridor, but
forecast lapse rates and sub-quality instability across much of this
region will not be particularly conducive for intense convective
updrafts through the period. Even so, ample shear and adequate
buoyancy will likely support isolated robust updrafts capable of
generating gusty winds and perhaps a few hail reports.
Early this morning, one notable short-wave trough was evident along
the OK/AR border. This feature will eject northeast and perhaps
weaken as it tracks into the OH Valley during the afternoon. This
feature may also aid LLJ that will translate downstream into OH by
18z in response to the short wave. Forecast soundings do not exhibit
appreciable instability ahead of the front along this corridor but
gusty winds, and perhaps some marginally severe hail could accompany
storms that develop ahead of the short wave.
Greater buoyancy will, however, exist across south TX into the lower
MS Valley. Although, mid- and high-level flow will not be strong at
these latitudes, and cloud-bearing shear will be weak. Gusty winds
along with some threat for marginally severe hail appear possible
with convection that develops along the front as it sags across
lower latitudes toward the Gulf Coast.
..Darrow/Moore.. 04/25/2022
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