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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, April 25, 2022

SPC Apr 25, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1216 AM CDT Mon Apr 25 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH TEXAS TO THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Occasional strong to marginally-severe thunderstorms may produce isolated damaging winds Monday from parts of the southern Plains into the lower Mississippi Valley, Tennessee Valley, Ohio Valley, and western New York. Some hail may also occur. ...Discussion... A belt of seasonally strong mid-level flow will gradually shift downstream and extend from the southern Plains-OH Valley by early afternoon. Deep southwesterly flow will dominate this corridor, but forecast lapse rates and sub-quality instability across much of this region will not be particularly conducive for intense convective updrafts through the period. Even so, ample shear and adequate buoyancy will likely support isolated robust updrafts capable of generating gusty winds and perhaps a few hail reports. Early this morning, one notable short-wave trough was evident along the OK/AR border. This feature will eject northeast and perhaps weaken as it tracks into the OH Valley during the afternoon. This feature may also aid LLJ that will translate downstream into OH by 18z in response to the short wave. Forecast soundings do not exhibit appreciable instability ahead of the front along this corridor but gusty winds, and perhaps some marginally severe hail could accompany storms that develop ahead of the short wave. Greater buoyancy will, however, exist across south TX into the lower MS Valley. Although, mid- and high-level flow will not be strong at these latitudes, and cloud-bearing shear will be weak. Gusty winds along with some threat for marginally severe hail appear possible with convection that develops along the front as it sags across lower latitudes toward the Gulf Coast. ..Darrow/Moore.. 04/25/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC