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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 24, 2022

SPC Apr 24, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0259 PM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Valid 242000Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TEXAS...NORTH TEXAS/SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA...AND THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO LOWER MICHIGAN... ...SUMMARY... Scattered large hail, isolated severe wind gusts, and a brief tornado remain possible across parts of the southern Plains this afternoon and evening. Scattered damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and a tornado or two may also occur this afternoon into early evening from the Mid Missouri Valley to Lower Michigan. ...20Z Update... Severe probabilities have been compressed/reduced behind an ongoing cluster of thunderstorms across north TX and southern OK. A cold front draped over this region will continue to move slowly southward this afternoon and evening. The best potential for isolated severe hail and damaging winds should remain focused along and south of this boundary as convection spreads eastward over the next several hours. Otherwise, a thunderstorm has recently initiated in the vicinity of the dryline/cold front intersection in west TX. Greater instability and steep mid-level lapse rates are present over this region compared to farther east in TX. 35-45 kt of deep-layer shear will likely support supercells with any thunderstorms that can be sustained as lingering convective inhibition gradually erodes. Large hail, with some potential for 2+ inch hail, and damaging winds should be the main threats with this activity through the evening as it develops slowly east-southeastward. Reference Mesoscale Discussion 557 for additional details. Farther north, isolated to scattered convection has developed this afternoon from parts of central IL to Lower MI. Although the thermodynamic environment across this region remains marginal owing to limited low-level moisture, deep-layer shear is fairly strong. Some attempt at a more cellular mode has recently been observed. Isolated damaging winds, marginally severe hail, and perhaps a tornado should remain a threat with these thunderstorms through the early evening. See Mesoscale Discussions 556/558 for more information on the near-term severe threat across this region. ..Gleason.. 04/24/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022/ ...North Texas/southern Oklahoma... Storms are expected to persist and further develop/intensify through the afternoon within a west/southwest-east/northeast-oriented corridor across north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Bouts of large hail should be the primary overall risk, although damaging wind potential may increase as the boundary layer warms ahead of the southeast-advancing front and any clustering of storms. ...West Texas... Near the Concho to Lower Pecos Valleys and the western Edwards Plateau, a few discrete supercells may develop during the early evening along the trailing portion of the front intersecting with the dryline. Despite weak low-level flow, 40-50 kt effective bulk shear in conjunction with MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg should support a threat for large hail. It is plausible that a slow-moving cluster may shift east-southeast along the composite convective outflow/cold front during the mid to late evening with a threat for isolated severe wind gusts before convection wanes tonight. ...Midwest including Illinois to Lower Michigan... A relatively moist air mass precedes an eastward-moving cold front with a semi-narrow regional axis of upper 50s/lower 60s F surface dewpoints. Limited mid-level height falls will occur with the primary upper-level trough centered to the north along the international border, but one or more weak MCVs will influence the region. Overall convergence will remain muted and cloud cover will remain semi-prevalent across the warm sector, but a diurnal intensification of storms is nonetheless probable across the southern and eastern halves of Illinois into western/northern Indiana and Lower Michigan. While transient supercells are possible, much of the activity should tend to evolve into linear bands and clusters. Strong to isolated severe wind gusts may result in scattered damaging winds, but a tornado or two could also occur given the moderately strong low-level shear/SRH. The overall severe threat should diminish after sunset. For additional short-term details, see Mesoscale Discussion 555. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC