SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0211 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Valid 261200Z - 271200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected on Tuesday.
...Synopsis...
A progressive mid/upper level pattern is forecast on Tuesday. A
large-scale trough from the Upper Midwest to the Lower MS Valley
will shift east toward the lower Great Lakes the southeastern U.S.
coast. Further west, a mid/upper trough near the Pacific coast will
move inland across the West while an upper ridge over the Rockies
develops east into the Plains. A weak surface low will be located
over the Mid-Atlantic vicinity, with a cold front extending from
eastern PA through the VA/NC Piedmont and then southwest toward the
central Gulf coast. Ahead of the front, modest boundary-layer
moisture will be in place, with mid/upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints
extending from the Southeast toward the Chesapeake Bay vicinity.
Modest heating will result in weak destabilization ahead of the
front and isolated thunderstorms are expected. However, poor
midlevel lapse rates and weak vertical shear will limit severe
potential. Additional low-topped, non-severe thunderstorms are
possible across parts of the Pacific Northwest. Cooling aloft
associated with the eastward-progressing upper trough will result in
steepening low/midlevel lapse rates, aiding in weak destabilization
(100-200 J/kg MLCAPE) and isolated thunderstorm potential during the
afternoon and evening.
..Leitman.. 04/24/2022
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