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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 24, 2022

SPC Apr 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds across parts of southern and central Texas into west-central Louisiana, as well as across parts of the Ohio Valley. Locally strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail may accompany the strongest storms. ...Synopsis... An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Midwest, spreading a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow across the Ohio Valley. Further south, another shortwave trough will develop eastward across the southern Plains to the mid/lower Mississippi Valley, though deep-layer flow will be weaker with this system compared to further north, becoming especially weak with southward extent across TX and the lower MS Valley. At the surface, a cold front is expected to extend from southeast lower MI into the ArkLaTex and south-central TX Monday morning. The front will shift east/southeast through the period, extending from eastern NY to the southern Appalachians, far southeast LA and the northwest Gulf coast by early Tuesday. Ahead of the front, mid to upper 60s surface dewpoints will reside across TX into the lower MS Valley, with upper 50s to low 60s dewpoints extending further north into the Ohio Valley. Isolated strong storms will be possible during the afternoon across parts of the Ohio Valley, as well as across south/central TX into west-central LA. ...Ohio Valley... Modest vertical shear will reside across the region with effective bulk shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Surface dewpoints reaching into the low 60s F amid modest diurnal heating, and midlevel lapse rates around 6.5-7 C/km will support MLCAPE values around 500-1000 J/kg across a narrow warm sector ahead of the cold front. Forecast soundings show LCLs around 850 mb with moderate low-level lapse rates. This could support a few strong wind gusts with more intense cells. Additionally, marginally severe hail is possible given adequate midlevel lapse rates with 500 mb temperatures around -12 C expected, and increasing mid/upper level flow aiding in at least briefly organized cells. ...South/Central TX into western LA... Heavy rainfall will likely be the main threat with thunderstorm activity on Monday (see WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) in a warm advection regime atop the southward-sagging cold front. However, pockets of stronger heating ahead of the front and surface dewpoints in the mid/upper 60s beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer flow will remain light, but a few strong cells may briefly be capable of strong downburst winds (especially due to water loading and steep low-level lapse rates) or marginally severe hail. ..Leitman.. 04/24/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC