SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1245 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHERN TEXAS INTO WEST-CENTRAL LOUISIANA...AND ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong thunderstorms may produce hail and gusty winds
across parts of southern and central Texas into west-central
Louisiana, as well as across parts of the Ohio Valley. Locally
strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail may accompany the
strongest storms.
...Synopsis...
An upper shortwave trough will pivot eastward across the Midwest,
spreading a belt of enhanced southwesterly mid/upper level flow
across the Ohio Valley. Further south, another shortwave trough will
develop eastward across the southern Plains to the mid/lower
Mississippi Valley, though deep-layer flow will be weaker with this
system compared to further north, becoming especially weak with
southward extent across TX and the lower MS Valley. At the surface,
a cold front is expected to extend from southeast lower MI into the
ArkLaTex and south-central TX Monday morning. The front will shift
east/southeast through the period, extending from eastern NY to the
southern Appalachians, far southeast LA and the northwest Gulf coast
by early Tuesday. Ahead of the front, mid to upper 60s surface
dewpoints will reside across TX into the lower MS Valley, with upper
50s to low 60s dewpoints extending further north into the Ohio
Valley. Isolated strong storms will be possible during the afternoon
across parts of the Ohio Valley, as well as across south/central TX
into west-central LA.
...Ohio Valley...
Modest vertical shear will reside across the region with effective
bulk shear magnitudes around 25-35 kt. Surface dewpoints reaching
into the low 60s F amid modest diurnal heating, and midlevel lapse
rates around 6.5-7 C/km will support MLCAPE values around 500-1000
J/kg across a narrow warm sector ahead of the cold front. Forecast
soundings show LCLs around 850 mb with moderate low-level lapse
rates. This could support a few strong wind gusts with more intense
cells. Additionally, marginally severe hail is possible given
adequate midlevel lapse rates with 500 mb temperatures around -12 C
expected, and increasing mid/upper level flow aiding in at least
briefly organized cells.
...South/Central TX into western LA...
Heavy rainfall will likely be the main threat with thunderstorm
activity on Monday (see WPC Excessive Rainfall Outlook) in a warm
advection regime atop the southward-sagging cold front. However,
pockets of stronger heating ahead of the front and surface dewpoints
in the mid/upper 60s beneath moderately steep midlevel lapse rates
will foster MLCAPE values around 1000-2000 J/kg. Deep layer flow
will remain light, but a few strong cells may briefly be capable of
strong downburst winds (especially due to water loading and steep
low-level lapse rates) or marginally severe hail.
..Leitman.. 04/24/2022
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