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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Sunday, April 24, 2022

SPC Apr 24, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022 Valid 241200Z - 251200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the Midwest into lower Michigan. A few severe storms are also expected across portions of the southern Plains. Wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two are the expected threats. ...Midwest/lower MI... Northern Plains upper trough is forecast to shift into the upper Great Lakes region later today as 500mb speed max ejects across southern WI into northern lower MI after sunset. This lead speed max will encourage a surface cold front to surge across much of WI into northwestern IL by 18z before advancing east of lake MI later in the evening. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer heating will occur from northwestern IN into lower MI, well ahead of the wind shift. As a result, this corridor will experience the greatest destabilization, and adequate buoyancy should materialize prior to convective development for robust updrafts within a strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings within the warm sector exhibit fairly steep lapse rates in the lowest 3km while surface-6km bulk shear will be at least on the order of 40kt. Deep south-southwesterly flow and seasonally high PW values favor organized line segments/bows and perhaps a few supercells. Damaging winds are the primary threat, though a tornado or two could also occur. ...Southern Plains... Mid-continent upper trough is somewhat split early this morning with a secondary short wave digging southeast across southern NV toward northern AZ. This feature times reasonably well for southern high Plains convection by late afternoon/early evening. At 0530z surface cold front has moved across all but southeast KS into northwest OK/northern TX Panhandle. The wind shift is forecast to advance to a position from eastern OK-northwest TX by 18z with a stronger surge expected across the high Plains into the Edwards Plateau by early evening. Strong surface heating is forecast across far west TX, east just ahead of the cold front into west-central TX. This will aid buoyancy for convection that develops along/near the wind shift. Forecast soundings suggest robust convection may develop within the warm sector, immediately ahead of the front, and post frontal aided by weak low-level warm advection. While elevated convection north of the boundary may generate some hail, surface-based storms ahead of the front could produce wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. ..Darrow/Karstens.. 04/24/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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