SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1234 AM CDT Sun Apr 24 2022
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE MIDWEST/LOWER MICHIGAN AND OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible across portions of the
Midwest into lower Michigan. A few severe storms are also expected
across portions of the southern Plains. Wind, hail, and perhaps a
tornado or two are the expected threats.
...Midwest/lower MI...
Northern Plains upper trough is forecast to shift into the upper
Great Lakes region later today as 500mb speed max ejects across
southern WI into northern lower MI after sunset. This lead speed max
will encourage a surface cold front to surge across much of WI into
northwestern IL by 18z before advancing east of lake MI later in the
evening. Latest model guidance suggests the strongest boundary-layer
heating will occur from northwestern IN into lower MI, well ahead of
the wind shift. As a result, this corridor will experience the
greatest destabilization, and adequate buoyancy should materialize
prior to convective development for robust updrafts within a
strongly sheared environment. Forecast soundings within the warm
sector exhibit fairly steep lapse rates in the lowest 3km while
surface-6km bulk shear will be at least on the order of 40kt. Deep
south-southwesterly flow and seasonally high PW values favor
organized line segments/bows and perhaps a few supercells. Damaging
winds are the primary threat, though a tornado or two could also
occur.
...Southern Plains...
Mid-continent upper trough is somewhat split early this morning with
a secondary short wave digging southeast across southern NV toward
northern AZ. This feature times reasonably well for southern high
Plains convection by late afternoon/early evening. At 0530z surface
cold front has moved across all but southeast KS into northwest
OK/northern TX Panhandle. The wind shift is forecast to advance to a
position from eastern OK-northwest TX by 18z with a stronger surge
expected across the high Plains into the Edwards Plateau by early
evening. Strong surface heating is forecast across far west TX, east
just ahead of the cold front into west-central TX. This will aid
buoyancy for convection that develops along/near the wind shift.
Forecast soundings suggest robust convection may develop within the
warm sector, immediately ahead of the front, and post frontal aided
by weak low-level warm advection. While elevated convection north of
the boundary may generate some hail, surface-based storms ahead of
the front could produce wind, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two.
..Darrow/Karstens.. 04/24/2022
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