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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, April 23, 2022

SPC Apr 23, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0300 PM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Valid 232000Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE UPPER MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this afternoon and evening from the Upper Midwest to Oklahoma. This includes a risk for a few tornadoes, damaging winds, and large hail. ...20Z Update... Main change with this update was to trim severe probabilities behind a line of convection over eastern ND into far western MN. Additional robust thunderstorms behind the cold frontal passage appears unlikely. Still, plentiful low-level shear remains present along/near the warm front across this region, and a few tornadoes will remain possible in addition to hail and damaging wind gusts. Farther south, additional thunderstorms are starting to form over parts of eastern KS/NE into western IA. For more information on the near-term severe threat across this region, see Mesoscale Discussion 545. Finally, isolated to widely scattered supercells are still expected to develop later this afternoon/evening over central/eastern OK, posing a threat for all severe hazards. ..Gleason.. 04/23/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1132 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022/ ...Eastern Dakotas and west-central/northwest Minnesota... Upper jet exit region/ample diffluence will overspread the region ahead of the northeastward-moving upper low over the Dakotas. A relatively narrow warm/moist sector will precede the eastern Dakotas/northern Minnesota low, which will undergo some additional deepening before beginning to weaken/fill later tonight. Pronounced mid-level height falls/DCVA will aid in substantial mid-level cooling and support a broken arc of low-topped convection from southeast North Dakota/northeast South Dakota into west-central/northwest Minnesota beginning around midday or early afternoon. A few supercells can be expected with a risk for short-lived tornadoes, large hail, and locally damaging winds. Updrafts should quickly become elevated after they cross a sharp surface warm front in northeast North Dakota/northern Minnesota but may still pose a threat for isolated severe hail. ...Iowa/eastern Kansas into northern/western Missouri... Although a few semi-discrete supercells could initially occur, clusters of storms should be prevalent across the region later this afternoon and evening. This will include the potential for severe hail, damaging winds, and possibly a couple of tornadoes even with a mixed/quasi-linear mode of storms. ...Oklahoma/western North Texas/southeast Kansas... Relatively mild mid-level temperatures /-9 to -12C at 500mb and 11+ C at 700mb/ exist atop the warm sector at these latitudes, which relates to tempered mid-level lapse rates that exist. Regardless, the potential for hail-producing supercells will be compensated by long/semi-straight mid/high-level portions /50+ at 500 mb/ of the hodograph, with deep-layer shear vectors largely orthogonal to the initiating boundary favorable for some discrete supercells. There will also be some increase in low-level moisture (lower 60s F surface dewpoints), which will contribute to upwards of 1500+ J/kg MLCAPE by peak heating. At least isolated/widely scattered storms are expected to develop by late afternoon/early evening in vicinity of the dryline/Pacific front. Large hail is possible along with the potential for a couple of tornadoes and damaging winds. ...West-central Texas... At least isolated severe storms may develop late this evening and/or overnight with the potential for isolated severe hail and locally damaging winds. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC