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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 23, 2022

SPC Apr 23, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1240 AM CDT Sat Apr 23 2022 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS/UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible Saturday through Saturday night in a corridor from parts of the northern Plains/Upper Mississippi Valley to the southern Great Plains. This will include a risk for hail, damaging winds, and a few tornadoes. ...Northern Plains/Upper MS Valley... Considerable amount of convection continues early this morning across the northern/central High Plains ahead of a pronounced upper trough ejecting across the Rockies. Latest model guidance suggests a large area of mid-level height falls will overspread the northern/central Plains with focused corridor of 180-210m 12hr falls forecast across NE/SD through late afternoon. This feature will dislodge a lee surface low over western NE which will track into northeast SD by 18z, then southeast ND by 24/00z. Primary zone of warm-advection convection has shifted well north of I-90 at 0530z and lower 60s surface dew points are expected to hold across much of the warm sector immediately ahead of the surface low. It appears strong surface heating will contribute to strong low-level heating across the central High Plains, extending into southeast SD by late morning. With surface-3km lapse rates steepening by early afternoon, a narrow wedge of destabilization is forecast ahead of the low across eastern SD/southeast ND/western MN. Forecast soundings exhibit weak inhibition within a strongly sheared environment, and latest thinking is isolated supercells should develop between 17-18z then race north-northeast. Large hail can be expected with this activity along with some threat for wind and even a few tornadoes. ...Eastern KS/Southern Plains... With the primary short-wave trough ejecting across northern latitudes, trailing cold front should arc south-southwest across central KS into the OK Panhandle by 24/00z with a notable dryline likely mixing across western OK/northwest TX. This front is expected to aid convection initially across western IA/southeast NE into eastern KS by late afternoon. While large-scale forcing for ascent will not be particularly significant south of KS, intense post-dryline heating should remove inhibition for isolated thunderstorms along the dryline by late afternoon. Forecast soundings suggest this may occur between 22-23z and subsequent movement would be northeast off the dryline toward I-35 during the evening across OK. A few storms may also form farther southwest along the boundary over northwest TX but coverage should be considerably less. Although, several HREF members do develop more convection across west TX by late evening, possibly in response to delayed weak height falls into this portion of the southern Plains late. Hail should be the primary risk along with some wind, and even a threat for a tornado or two. ..Darrow/Karstens.. 04/23/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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