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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 2, 2022

SPC Apr 2, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY... ...SUMMARY... A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible. ...Synopsis... A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity. A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization. Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK. Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity. During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs across the region will be quite large given the strength of low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes. ..Leitman.. 04/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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