SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL TEXAS
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY VICINITY...
...SUMMARY...
A broad area of severe thunderstorm potential will exist Monday
across central/eastern Texas, and spread east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley vicinity through Monday night. Damaging wind
gusts, large hail and tornadoes will all be possible.
...Synopsis...
A neutral to positively tilted upper trough will quickly eject east
from the southwest U.S. to the Ozarks/east Texas on Monday. A large
warm sector ahead of the trough will result in a broad area of
severe potential from central/eastern TX into the Lower MS
Valley/central Gulf Coast vicinity.
A surface low over northern IL will dissipate as it shifts east
across the Midwest, leaving a nearly stationary cold front extending
from the mid-MS Valley into central OK and western TX. As the
western trough shifts east, a weak surface low is forecast to
develop over western TX and track east in the vicinity of north TX
or southern OK. Low-level southerly flow will transport mid 60s to
low 70s surface dewpoints northward into central and eastern TX and
low to mid 60s as far north as the Red River Valley. Steepening
midlevel lapse rates will support moderate destabilization.
Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop in the vicinity of a
dryline, and also in the warm advection regime in the vicinity of
the quasi-stationary cold front across central/southern OK.
Vertically veering wind profiles, with speeds increasing quickly
with height, will support initial supercells across the warm sector
from central into eastern TX. Large hail, damaging gusts and a few
tornadoes appear possible with this activity through the
afternoon/evening hours. As the low-level jet increases during the
evening, upscale development into an eastward-advancing MCS is
possible across the Sabine Valley vicinity.
During the evening and overnight hours, the southwesterly low-level
jet will increase and spread east across LA and the lower MS Valley
into western AL. A warm front extending from the ArkLaTex vicinity
to southern MS/AL during the evening will lift northward through the
overnight hours to roughly central MS/AL, and will demarcate the
northern extent of at least mid-60s surface dewpoints. Severe
thunderstorms will be possible with any MCS/QLCS that develops
across TX/LA and shifts eastward overnight, as well as with any
semi-discrete convection that may develop. Forecast hodographs
across the region will be quite large given the strength of
low-level flow, and instability will be more than sufficient to
support a risk for damaging gusts a few tornadoes.
..Leitman.. 04/02/2022
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