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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 2, 2022

SPC Apr 2, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and hail should be the main hazards. ...FL Peninsula... Early this morning a notable short-wave trough was observed over the southern Plains. This feature is forecast to dig east-southeast across the Gulf States and off the Southeast Atlantic Coast by 03/06. As the southern influence of the short wave approaches the northern Gulf, weak LLJ is expected to develop then strengthen and veer to southwesterly before translating toward the FL Gulf Coast by 18z. Latest model guidance suggests a considerable amount of convection will evolve along this warm-advection corridor over the northern/northeastern Gulf before spreading east. Boundary-layer heating should contribute to modest buoyancy such that convection should readily develop by late morning/mid day across the northern Peninsula, especially given the weak low-level warm advection. Numerous showers/thunderstorms may ultimately lead to a larger complex that will spread east/southeast by late afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit surface-6km bulk shear on the order of 35-40kt ahead of this activity, which should contribute to some organizational potential, especially given ~2500 J/kg SBCAPE. While bulk shear will support updraft organization, lowest 3km SRH is not particularly impressive, and overall convective event may be a combination of clusters and discrete updrafts. Somewhat greater low-level convergence will naturally be noted along the East Coast in this regime and this could focus convection, especially near/after peak heating. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for wind/hail continue. ..Darrow/Moore.. 04/02/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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