SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1241 AM CDT Sat Apr 02 2022
Valid 021200Z - 031200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated to scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible across
parts of the Florida Peninsula on Saturday. Damaging wind gusts and
hail should be the main hazards.
...FL Peninsula...
Early this morning a notable short-wave trough was observed over the
southern Plains. This feature is forecast to dig east-southeast
across the Gulf States and off the Southeast Atlantic Coast by
03/06. As the southern influence of the short wave approaches the
northern Gulf, weak LLJ is expected to develop then strengthen and
veer to southwesterly before translating toward the FL Gulf Coast by
18z. Latest model guidance suggests a considerable amount of
convection will evolve along this warm-advection corridor over the
northern/northeastern Gulf before spreading east. Boundary-layer
heating should contribute to modest buoyancy such that convection
should readily develop by late morning/mid day across the northern
Peninsula, especially given the weak low-level warm advection.
Numerous showers/thunderstorms may ultimately lead to a larger
complex that will spread east/southeast by late afternoon. Forecast
soundings exhibit surface-6km bulk shear on the order of 35-40kt
ahead of this activity, which should contribute to some
organizational potential, especially given ~2500 J/kg SBCAPE. While
bulk shear will support updraft organization, lowest 3km SRH is not
particularly impressive, and overall convective event may be a
combination of clusters and discrete updrafts. Somewhat greater
low-level convergence will naturally be noted along the East Coast
in this regime and this could focus convection, especially
near/after peak heating. Earlier thoughts regarding the prospect for
wind/hail continue.
..Darrow/Moore.. 04/02/2022
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