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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 1, 2022

SPC Apr 1, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022 Valid 012000Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe wind gusts should occur across parts of the southern High Plains between about 4 to 8 PM CDT. A strong to locally severe storm or two will remain possible for a portion of the Atlantic Florida Coast through early evening. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts of the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms have formed over eastern NM and the northwest TX Panhandle. This activity is expected to spread east-southeastward this afternoon and early evening across the TX Panhandle and eventually southwestern OK into western north TX. A well-mixed boundary layer should encourage strong to locally severe downdraft winds to reach the surface, even with low-level moisture remaining meager. The Marginal Risk across a small part of the FL Peninsula has been further confined to where convection is ongoing along/near the Atlantic Coast. Occasional strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail will remain a threat in the short term before thunderstorms move offshore. For more information, see Mesoscale Discussion 384. ..Gleason.. 04/01/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022/ ...Southern High Plains... The presence of 20s and 30s surface dew points will remain a substantial limiting factor to a greater severe threat today. However, strong cooling aloft with approach of a shortwave trough moving across the southern Rockies will support steepening mid-level lapse rates atop a deeply mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profile. Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate over northeast NM by mid-afternoon and increase in coverage across the TX Panhandle into late afternoon. With such scant buoyancy (MLCAPE less than 250 J/kg), strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be the primary concern. Sporadic 40-55 kt gusts seem probable in the more robust downdrafts, especially across the southern portion of the Panhandle into western north TX. This gust potential will diminish rather quickly just after sunset given the paucity of boundary-layer moisture and rapid increase in MLCIN. ...East-central/southeast FL... A nearly west/east-oriented convective band continues to sink slowly south just ahead of a cold front across central FL. It is still plausible that a strong storm or two may yet develop where this band interacts with the east coast sea breeze. With modest and veered low-level winds along with a lack of substantial mid/upper-level support, confidence is low that convection will adequately intensify for a severe wind/hail threat. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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