SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022
Valid 012000Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FLORIDA ATLANTIC COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe wind gusts should occur across parts of the southern
High Plains between about 4 to 8 PM CDT. A strong to locally severe
storm or two will remain possible for a portion of the Atlantic
Florida Coast through early evening.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to the Marginal Risk across parts
of the southern High Plains. Isolated thunderstorms have formed over
eastern NM and the northwest TX Panhandle. This activity is expected
to spread east-southeastward this afternoon and early evening across
the TX Panhandle and eventually southwestern OK into western north
TX. A well-mixed boundary layer should encourage strong to locally
severe downdraft winds to reach the surface, even with low-level
moisture remaining meager.
The Marginal Risk across a small part of the FL Peninsula has been
further confined to where convection is ongoing along/near the
Atlantic Coast. Occasional strong/gusty winds and perhaps some hail
will remain a threat in the short term before thunderstorms move
offshore. For more information, see Mesoscale Discussion 384.
..Gleason.. 04/01/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Fri Apr 01 2022/
...Southern High Plains...
The presence of 20s and 30s surface dew points will remain a
substantial limiting factor to a greater severe threat today.
However, strong cooling aloft with approach of a shortwave trough
moving across the southern Rockies will support steepening mid-level
lapse rates atop a deeply mixed inverted-v thermodynamic profile.
Isolated high-based thunderstorms are expected to initiate over
northeast NM by mid-afternoon and increase in coverage across the TX
Panhandle into late afternoon. With such scant buoyancy (MLCAPE less
than 250 J/kg), strong to isolated severe wind gusts will be the
primary concern. Sporadic 40-55 kt gusts seem probable in the more
robust downdrafts, especially across the southern portion of the
Panhandle into western north TX. This gust potential will diminish
rather quickly just after sunset given the paucity of boundary-layer
moisture and rapid increase in MLCIN.
...East-central/southeast FL...
A nearly west/east-oriented convective band continues to sink slowly
south just ahead of a cold front across central FL. It is still
plausible that a strong storm or two may yet develop where this band
interacts with the east coast sea breeze. With modest and veered
low-level winds along with a lack of substantial mid/upper-level
support, confidence is low that convection will adequately intensify
for a severe wind/hail threat.
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