SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022
Valid 171200Z - 181200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN
LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms, possibly including an organized cluster,
may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across parts of the
lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity Sunday
afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
The center of a fairly prominent subtropical high may shift westward
off the Mexican Pacific coast, to the south of Baja, during this
period. However, the northern periphery of this high is forecast to
rebuild across the Mexican/U.S. international border vicinity, as
the mid-latitude westerlies to the north undergo amplification.
This likely will include a building mid-level ridge across the Great
Basin and Canadian/U.S. Rockies, downstream of an evolving
large-scale trough and embedded low offshore of the U.S. Pacific
coast.
As the ridging builds, a pair of short wave perturbations, initially
progressing across and east of the Rockies by 12Z Sunday, will begin
to dig southeastward. Models continue to indicate that they will
remain largely out of phase, with the southern wave digging across
the southern Great Plains before turning eastward across and east of
the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night, as the more
prominent northern impulse digs across the northern Great Plains
into the upper Mississippi Valley.
In the wake of a more significant mid-level trough forecast to
gradually progress east of the northern Atlantic Seaboard, the
primary surface frontal zone may initially stall across the southern
Atlantic Seaboard into the lower Mississippi Valley, where a weak
frontal wave may form in response to the trailing southern
perturbation. Seasonably moist and potentially unstable
boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to the south of
this front, and perhaps a pre-frontal convectively generated
boundary initially extending across southern Georgia/northern
Florida toward the Arkansas/Louisiana border vicinity.
...Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent eastern Gulf coast...
Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing early Sunday along
the front and/or prefrontal boundary, and subsequent developments
remain unclear. However, models continue to indicate that
moderately large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg
will develop to the south of the boundaries by Sunday afternoon, in
advance of the approaching mid-level perturbation. Increasing
forcing for ascent and strengthening southwesterly to westerly flow
in the lower/mid troposphere (30-50+ kt in the 850-500 my layer) are
then expected to contribute to an environment conducive to organized
severe thunderstorm development. Initially, this may include
supercells capable of producing large hail and locally strong
surface gusts. Gradually the upscale growth of one or two
organizing clusters appears possible, accompanied by increasing
potential to produce damaging wind gusts while propagating
southeastward through Sunday evening.
..Kerr.. 04/16/2022
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