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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Saturday, April 16, 2022

SPC Apr 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook

SPC 0600Z Day 2 Outlook Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Valid 171200Z - 181200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN AND EASTERN LOUISIANA...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWESTERN ALABAMA AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms, possibly including an organized cluster, may produce large hail and damaging wind gusts across parts of the lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent Gulf coast vicinity Sunday afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... The center of a fairly prominent subtropical high may shift westward off the Mexican Pacific coast, to the south of Baja, during this period. However, the northern periphery of this high is forecast to rebuild across the Mexican/U.S. international border vicinity, as the mid-latitude westerlies to the north undergo amplification. This likely will include a building mid-level ridge across the Great Basin and Canadian/U.S. Rockies, downstream of an evolving large-scale trough and embedded low offshore of the U.S. Pacific coast. As the ridging builds, a pair of short wave perturbations, initially progressing across and east of the Rockies by 12Z Sunday, will begin to dig southeastward. Models continue to indicate that they will remain largely out of phase, with the southern wave digging across the southern Great Plains before turning eastward across and east of the lower Mississippi Valley by late Sunday night, as the more prominent northern impulse digs across the northern Great Plains into the upper Mississippi Valley. In the wake of a more significant mid-level trough forecast to gradually progress east of the northern Atlantic Seaboard, the primary surface frontal zone may initially stall across the southern Atlantic Seaboard into the lower Mississippi Valley, where a weak frontal wave may form in response to the trailing southern perturbation. Seasonably moist and potentially unstable boundary-layer air will generally remain confined to the south of this front, and perhaps a pre-frontal convectively generated boundary initially extending across southern Georgia/northern Florida toward the Arkansas/Louisiana border vicinity. ...Lower Mississippi Valley and adjacent eastern Gulf coast... Scattered thunderstorm activity may be ongoing early Sunday along the front and/or prefrontal boundary, and subsequent developments remain unclear. However, models continue to indicate that moderately large mixed-layer CAPE on the order of 1000-2000 J/kg will develop to the south of the boundaries by Sunday afternoon, in advance of the approaching mid-level perturbation. Increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening southwesterly to westerly flow in the lower/mid troposphere (30-50+ kt in the 850-500 my layer) are then expected to contribute to an environment conducive to organized severe thunderstorm development. Initially, this may include supercells capable of producing large hail and locally strong surface gusts. Gradually the upscale growth of one or two organizing clusters appears possible, accompanied by increasing potential to produce damaging wind gusts while propagating southeastward through Sunday evening. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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