SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 181200Z - 191200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible
across the U.S. Monday through Monday night.
...Discussion...
Models suggest that mid/upper flow will lose amplitude across the
Pacific coast through the Rockies during this period, while
undergoing considerable amplification downstream, east of the
mid/upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Atlantic Seaboard
and adjacent Atlantic. This is forecast to include the continuing
evolution of a rather significant upper trough digging southeast of
the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Northeast. It appears
that a preceding perturbation in lower latitudes will undergo
considerable deformation while crossing the southern and middle
Atlantic Coast states, and offshore by early Monday evening. It is
possible that the lead impulse may be accompanied by another
developing wave along a frontal zone across Georgia into the
Carolinas. However, stronger surface cyclogenesis probably will not
occur until Monday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, in
response to the approach of the more significant upper trough.
...Southeast...
Remnant thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may be ongoing early
Monday across parts of Georgia into the Florida Panhandle. It might
not be entirely out of the question that pre-frontal destabilization
ahead of this convection through midday could support
intensification, along with some developing severe weather potential
as activity spreads into/across Georgia and South Carolina coastal
areas. However, the signal for this within the various model output
remains rather weak, and severe probabilities are being maintained
at less than 5 percent.
Otherwise, the sea breeze might become a focus for strong
thunderstorm development near the Florida Atlantic coast late Monday
afternoon and evening, mainly south of Vero Beach. It is possible
that the environment could support an isolated supercell or two, but
due to the limited and uncertain nature of this threat, severe
probabilities are also being maintained at less than 5 percent for
this area as well.
..Kerr.. 04/16/2022
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