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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Saturday, April 16, 2022

SPC Apr 16, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0158 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Valid 181200Z - 191200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms currently appears negligible across the U.S. Monday through Monday night. ...Discussion... Models suggest that mid/upper flow will lose amplitude across the Pacific coast through the Rockies during this period, while undergoing considerable amplification downstream, east of the mid/upper Mississippi Valley through the northern Atlantic Seaboard and adjacent Atlantic. This is forecast to include the continuing evolution of a rather significant upper trough digging southeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes region into the Northeast. It appears that a preceding perturbation in lower latitudes will undergo considerable deformation while crossing the southern and middle Atlantic Coast states, and offshore by early Monday evening. It is possible that the lead impulse may be accompanied by another developing wave along a frontal zone across Georgia into the Carolinas. However, stronger surface cyclogenesis probably will not occur until Monday night, offshore of the Mid Atlantic coast, in response to the approach of the more significant upper trough. ...Southeast... Remnant thunderstorm activity from Sunday night may be ongoing early Monday across parts of Georgia into the Florida Panhandle. It might not be entirely out of the question that pre-frontal destabilization ahead of this convection through midday could support intensification, along with some developing severe weather potential as activity spreads into/across Georgia and South Carolina coastal areas. However, the signal for this within the various model output remains rather weak, and severe probabilities are being maintained at less than 5 percent. Otherwise, the sea breeze might become a focus for strong thunderstorm development near the Florida Atlantic coast late Monday afternoon and evening, mainly south of Vero Beach. It is possible that the environment could support an isolated supercell or two, but due to the limited and uncertain nature of this threat, severe probabilities are also being maintained at less than 5 percent for this area as well. ..Kerr.. 04/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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