SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX
INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
...SUMMARY...
Widely scattered strong storms may pose a risk for severe wind and
hail Saturday from parts of the Arklatex and lower Mississippi
Valley into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe storm or two
is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country
vicinity.
...Arklatex/Lower MS Valley...
Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts broad upper anticyclone
over Mexico, extending into far west TX. Over the next 24 hours,
very minor disturbances will translate through this ridge, then dig
southeast toward the northeast Gulf Coast. A more significant
short-wave trough will eject into the central/southern High Plains
by daybreak Sunday. Net result will be negligible height changes
much of the period. As a result, surface front that currently drapes
from IL-Ozarks-central OK is expected to only sag slowly south
across the lower MS Valley, aided in part by convection that
develops along/north of the boundary.
An expansive corridor of convection currently extends ahead of the
wind shift from northern MS/western TN into KY. This activity has
evolved into an MCS that should propagate southeast through sunrise,
likely establishing a northwest-southeast boundary that should serve
as a demarcation for robust convection Saturday. Low-level warm
advection appears to be supporting new convection across eastern OK
at 0530z, and this activity may continue to evolve into the start of
the day1 period. Mean northwesterly flow should favor ongoing
convection/new development propagating southeast along the
aforementioned convective boundary across AR-MS. Latest model
guidance does not suggest particularly intense boundary-layer
heating along the boundary, but modest buoyancy and strong sfc-6km
bulk shear favor potential supercells along with multicell clusters.
Wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks from the
Arklatex into the lower MS Valley.
...TX...
Surface front is forecast to surge a bit quicker/farther south
across TX than points east. By peak heating this wind shift should
extend from near Dallas, trailing just northwest of the Balcones
Escarpment to near the international border. In the absence of
large-scale support aloft, weak low-level convergence will likely
limit convection along this wind shift. Will maintain 5 percent
severe probabilities for wind/hail due to an outside chance for an
isolated strong/severe thunderstorm trailing along the front.
..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/16/2022
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