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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Saturday, April 16, 2022

SPC Apr 16, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1244 AM CDT Sat Apr 16 2022 Valid 161200Z - 171200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE ARKLATEX INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Widely scattered strong storms may pose a risk for severe wind and hail Saturday from parts of the Arklatex and lower Mississippi Valley into parts of the Southeast. An isolated severe storm or two is also possible across the Texas Edwards Plateau and Hill Country vicinity. ...Arklatex/Lower MS Valley... Early-morning water-vapor imagery depicts broad upper anticyclone over Mexico, extending into far west TX. Over the next 24 hours, very minor disturbances will translate through this ridge, then dig southeast toward the northeast Gulf Coast. A more significant short-wave trough will eject into the central/southern High Plains by daybreak Sunday. Net result will be negligible height changes much of the period. As a result, surface front that currently drapes from IL-Ozarks-central OK is expected to only sag slowly south across the lower MS Valley, aided in part by convection that develops along/north of the boundary. An expansive corridor of convection currently extends ahead of the wind shift from northern MS/western TN into KY. This activity has evolved into an MCS that should propagate southeast through sunrise, likely establishing a northwest-southeast boundary that should serve as a demarcation for robust convection Saturday. Low-level warm advection appears to be supporting new convection across eastern OK at 0530z, and this activity may continue to evolve into the start of the day1 period. Mean northwesterly flow should favor ongoing convection/new development propagating southeast along the aforementioned convective boundary across AR-MS. Latest model guidance does not suggest particularly intense boundary-layer heating along the boundary, but modest buoyancy and strong sfc-6km bulk shear favor potential supercells along with multicell clusters. Wind gusts and isolated large hail are the primary risks from the Arklatex into the lower MS Valley. ...TX... Surface front is forecast to surge a bit quicker/farther south across TX than points east. By peak heating this wind shift should extend from near Dallas, trailing just northwest of the Balcones Escarpment to near the international border. In the absence of large-scale support aloft, weak low-level convergence will likely limit convection along this wind shift. Will maintain 5 percent severe probabilities for wind/hail due to an outside chance for an isolated strong/severe thunderstorm trailing along the front. ..Darrow/Weinman.. 04/16/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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