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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 15, 2022

SPC Apr 15, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0238 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022 Valid 152000Z - 161200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this evening and tonight from eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri into parts of Arkansas and west Tennessee. Large hail is the main threat, although damaging winds and a tornado or two are also possible. The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes were made at 20Z. Storms are expected to from at or just after 00Z from northeast OK into southwest MO along a weak front and where heating is strong, with a few supercells possible. Additional storms are expected later tonight, possibly a small MCS, with addition threat of damaging wind. An brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening as both low-level shear and moisture increase. ..Jewell.. 04/15/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/ ...OK/MO/AR/TN/MS... Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough over western KS. This feature is expected to move into northwest OK/southwest MO by early evening. Ahead of the trough, strong southerly low-level winds will transport 60s dewpoints into eastern OK and much of AR, leading to a moderately unstable environment. Thunderstorms are expected to form near the MO/AR border by late afternoon/early evening and spread east-southeastward toward northeast AR. Supercell storm structures are expected, capable of very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms progress eastward after dark, some increase in risk of locally damaging wind gusts may also develop. These storms may persist into west TN and northwest MS before weakening late tonight. After dark, the primary surface cold front will impinge on the low-level moisture over east-central OK, leading to another round of storms. This activity will build eastward and across central/southern AR after midnight. This activity will also pose a risk of hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado or two. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC