SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0238 PM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022
Valid 152000Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EASTERN
OKLAHOMA ACROSS ARKANSAS AND PORTIONS OF SURROUNDING STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms will occur this evening and tonight
from eastern Oklahoma and southern Missouri into parts of Arkansas
and west Tennessee. Large hail is the main threat, although
damaging winds and a tornado or two are also possible.
The previous outlook remains on track, and no changes were made at
20Z. Storms are expected to from at or just after 00Z from northeast
OK into southwest MO along a weak front and where heating is strong,
with a few supercells possible. Additional storms are expected later
tonight, possibly a small MCS, with addition threat of damaging
wind. An brief tornado cannot be ruled out this evening as both
low-level shear and moisture increase.
..Jewell.. 04/15/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022/
...OK/MO/AR/TN/MS...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a fast-moving shortwave trough
over western KS. This feature is expected to move into northwest
OK/southwest MO by early evening. Ahead of the trough, strong
southerly low-level winds will transport 60s dewpoints into eastern
OK and much of AR, leading to a moderately unstable environment.
Thunderstorms are expected to form near the MO/AR border by late
afternoon/early evening and spread east-southeastward toward
northeast AR. Supercell storm structures are expected, capable of
very large hail and perhaps a tornado or two. As the storms
progress eastward after dark, some increase in risk of locally
damaging wind gusts may also develop. These storms may persist into
west TN and northwest MS before weakening late tonight.
After dark, the primary surface cold front will impinge on the
low-level moisture over east-central OK, leading to another round of
storms. This activity will build eastward and across
central/southern AR after midnight. This activity will also pose a
risk of hail, gusty winds, and perhaps a tornado or two.
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