Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 AM CDT Fri Apr 15 2022
Valid 181200Z - 231200Z
...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range models suggest that seasonably cool/dry conditions will
prevail across most areas east of the Rockies by early next Monday.
It appears that this will include much of the Atlantic Seaboard,
except, perhaps parts of the coastal Southeast, before an amplifying
mid-level wave digs southeast of the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and
reinforces these conditions in the wake of associated cyclogenesis
from the northern Mid Atlantic coast into southeastern Canada.
However, mid/upper flow is forecast to remain generally progressive
across much of North America, and it does appear that a return flow
of moisture may commence across the lower Rio Grande Valley into at
least portions of the southern Great Plains by the middle of next
week. It is possible that this could contribute to some potential
for strong thunderstorm development as early as Wednesday, but this
may remain fairly isolated as forcing for ascent with the primary
mid-level wave crossing the Rockies remains confined to higher
latitudes.
In general, it appears that severe weather probabilities will remain
relatively low (particularly for the time of year), at least into
late next week or next weekend, when models continue to indicate
that amplified large-scale mid-level troughing may develop inland of
the Pacific coast through much of the Intermountain West and
Rockies. If this occurs, it should support deepening surface
troughing to the lee of the Rockies and destabilization associated
with an increasingly moist southerly return flow.
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