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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, April 11, 2022

SPC Apr 11, 2022 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 110100Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN OK INTO SOUTHWEST MO...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected later tonight near and north of the I-44 corridor from northern Oklahoma into southwest Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...OK into southeast KS and southwest MO... Thunderstorm development is still expected later this evening across northern OK into southeast KS/southwest MO, as a strengthening low-level jet impinges on a slow-moving cold front. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (as noted on regional 00Z soundings) and moderate effective shear will support a hail threat with the initial development, with some upscale growth and a modest increase in damaging wind potential possible later in the convective evolution. While convection will likely be mostly elevated, a brief tornado or two will be possible with any cell/cluster that is sustained near the surface boundary. Convection will likely weaken as it moves into east-central MO late in the period, though buoyancy will likely remain sufficient to support a lingering hail threat into early Monday morning. ...Parts of central/south TX... Isolated thunderstorms have developed this evening across parts of south TX, within an environment characterized by very warm (90s F) temperatures, moderate MLCAPE (1000-1500 J/kg), and effective shear of 35-45 kt. These storms will pose a short-term threat for isolated hail and downburst winds, but increasing MLCINH downstream of these storms should result in a weakening trend after sunset. ..Dean.. 04/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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