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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Sunday, April 10, 2022

SPC Apr 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0239 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM NORTHERN OK INTO MO...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms are expected tonight near and north of the I-44 corridor from northern Oklahoma into Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. ...20Z Update... Overall outlook remains on track with no changes needed. Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest MN with the cold front extending southward for the low across IA and then back southwestward through northwestern MO, southeast KS, and north-central OK. Low-level moisture continues to increase ahead of this front, with 60 deg F dewpoints now into North Texas and mid 50s into east-central OK. Thunderstorm development is still anticipated tonight along the front from north-central OK into central MO. steep midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and moderate bulk shear appear sufficient for supercells initially capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Most of storm will likely mature north of the front, but just enough potential exists for a pre-frontal, surface-based storm to support a low probability tornado risk. ..Mosier.. 04/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/ ...Northern OK into MO tonight... A lead shortwave trough over WY this morning will progress east-northeastward to the upper MS Valley, as an associated surface cyclone likewise develops northeastward from southeastern NE to western Lake Superior by 11/12z. In the wake of this wave, a surface cold front will move slowly southeastward across OK/MO through Monday morning. South of this front, a modifying boundary layer with dew points in the low-mid 60s is returning northward from the western Gulf of Mexico to south/southeast TX, and this moisture will continue to spread northward toward central/eastern OK by this evening. The moistening will occur beneath a rather warm elevated mixed layer per regional 12z soundings, with a substantial cap to inhibit surface-based thunderstorm development today. By late this evening into early tonight, the chances for thunderstorm development will increase to the immediate cool side of the front, generally near or north of I-44 in central/northeast OK. Low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface will provide sufficient ascent to reach saturation and reduce convective inhibition, with elevated thunderstorm development more probable after about 02z. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (> 8.5 C/km), MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear > 40 kt (some clockwise hodograph curvature in low levels and speed shear aloft) appears sufficient for supercells initially capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. The convection will subsequently spread northeastward as clusters into MO through the overnight hours. There will be just enough low-level moistening/destabilization that a tornado cannot be ruled out with convection moving along the surface front. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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