SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0239 PM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT FROM
NORTHERN OK INTO MO...NEAR AND NORTH OF THE I-44 CORRIDOR...
...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms are expected tonight near and north of
the I-44 corridor from northern Oklahoma into Missouri. Large hail
and damaging winds will be the main threats.
...20Z Update...
Overall outlook remains on track with no changes needed.
Recent surface analysis places a low over southwest MN with the cold
front extending southward for the low across IA and then back
southwestward through northwestern MO, southeast KS, and
north-central OK. Low-level moisture continues to increase ahead of
this front, with 60 deg F dewpoints now into North Texas and mid 50s
into east-central OK. Thunderstorm development is still anticipated
tonight along the front from north-central OK into central MO. steep
midlevel lapse rates, moderate buoyancy, and moderate bulk shear
appear sufficient for supercells initially capable of producing
large hail and damaging winds. Most of storm will likely mature
north of the front, but just enough potential exists for a
pre-frontal, surface-based storm to support a low probability
tornado risk.
..Mosier.. 04/10/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1127 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022/
...Northern OK into MO tonight...
A lead shortwave trough over WY this morning will progress
east-northeastward to the upper MS Valley, as an associated surface
cyclone likewise develops northeastward from southeastern NE to
western Lake Superior by 11/12z. In the wake of this wave, a
surface cold front will move slowly southeastward across OK/MO
through Monday morning. South of this front, a modifying boundary
layer with dew points in the low-mid 60s is returning northward from
the western Gulf of Mexico to south/southeast TX, and this moisture
will continue to spread northward toward central/eastern OK by this
evening. The moistening will occur beneath a rather warm elevated
mixed layer per regional 12z soundings, with a substantial cap to
inhibit surface-based thunderstorm development today.
By late this evening into early tonight, the chances for
thunderstorm development will increase to the immediate cool side of
the front, generally near or north of I-44 in central/northeast OK.
Low-level warm advection atop the frontal surface will provide
sufficient ascent to reach saturation and reduce convective
inhibition, with elevated thunderstorm development more probable
after about 02z. Very steep midlevel lapse rates (> 8.5 C/km),
MUCAPE > 2000 J/kg, and effective bulk shear > 40 kt (some clockwise
hodograph curvature in low levels and speed shear aloft) appears
sufficient for supercells initially capable of producing large hail
and damaging winds. The convection will subsequently spread
northeastward as clusters into MO through the overnight hours.
There will be just enough low-level moistening/destabilization that
a tornado cannot be ruled out with convection moving along the
surface front.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SNL6XL
