SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022
Valid 131200Z - 141200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a
large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest,
Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail,
damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes
may occur.
...Synopsis...
An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains
across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on
Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally
eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A
trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the
MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well.
...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast...
A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these
regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent
associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely
overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints
will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture
likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS
Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the
continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for
moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon.
Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support
organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast
to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across
parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day.
If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe
hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear
convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of
the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging
winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon
and evening.
Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous
to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The
main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this
time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower
MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization
later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient
instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should
continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and
Southeast Wednesday night.
..Gleason.. 04/11/2022
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