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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, April 11, 2022

SPC Apr 11, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0234 AM CDT Mon Apr 11 2022 Valid 131200Z - 141200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER/MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE MIDWEST... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms appear likely across a large portion of the lower/mid Mississippi Valley into the Midwest, Ohio Valley, and Southeast on Wednesday. Large to very large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes will all be possible. Strong tornadoes may occur. ...Synopsis... An upper trough/low will continue to eject eastward from the Plains across much of the MS Valley, Midwest and Great Lakes regions on Wednesday. A surface low is likewise expected to advance generally eastward across the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes through the period. A trailing cold front will sweep eastward Wednesday across much of the MS/OH Valleys and Southeast as well. ...Mississippi Valley into the Midwest/Ohio Valley and Southeast... A substantial severe threat is evident for a large part of these regions ahead of the cold front. Pronounced large-scale ascent associated with the negatively tilted upper trough will likely overspread the warm sector through the day. 60s surface dewpoints will be present ahead of the front, with greater low-level moisture likely in place from the lower OH Valley/Mid-South into the lower MS Valley and Southeast. Diurnal heating of this airmass and the continued presence of steepened lapse rates aloft should allow for moderate to strong instability to develop by Wednesday afternoon. Deep-layer shear generally in excess of 45-50 kt will support organized severe thunderstorms, and low-level shear is also forecast to be quite strong. Pre-frontal convection appears possible across parts of the Mid-South and lower MS Valley vicinity through the day. If this occurs, then supercells posing a threat for all severe hazards, including strong tornadoes, would be likely. Linear convection is also expected to develop along much of the length of the front, and this activity will pose a threat for both damaging winds and QLCS tornadoes as it spreads eastward Wednesday afternoon and evening. Have opted to include a broad Enhanced Risk to account for numerous to potentially widespread damaging winds, and several tornadoes. The main uncertainty precluding greater severe probabilities at this time is the possible effect of early-day convection across the lower MS Valley/Mid-South on prospects for substantial destabilization later in the afternoon. Given the strong flow and sufficient instability forecast, at least an isolated severe threat should continue with eastward extent across the OH Valley, TN Valley, and Southeast Wednesday night. ..Gleason.. 04/11/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC