SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST
OK...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR...SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday evening from parts
of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri. Large hail and damaging
winds are expected to be the main threats.
...Synopsis...
A longwave mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the
central/western CONUS today. A prominent embedded shortwave trough
will move from the central/northern Rockies into the upper Midwest
by early Monday morning, with lower-amplitude perturbations moving
through the broadly cyclonic flow further south across the central
and southern Plains. A surface low initially over KS will move
toward the upper Great Lakes in conjunction with the primary
shortwave trough, while a secondary surface low develops across the
southern High Plains along a trailing cold front.
...Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau and Mid-MS Valley...
Modest moisture return is expected to begin later this morning over
parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with
dewpoints eventually rising into the 50s F across the warm sector. A
stout EML will likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorm initiation
for much of the day, but MLCAPE will steadily increase into the
1500-2000 J/kg range as robust diurnal heating occurs beneath very
steep midlevel lapse rates. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will
provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization,
conditional upon initiation.
The timing and location of storm initiation remain uncertain due to
capping concerns and initially modest large-scale ascent. Initiation
cannot be ruled out near the dryline/triple point across
west-central/southwest OK during the late afternoon/early evening,
but substantial MLCINH across the warm sector is expected to limit
this potential. Initiation near the cold front from northeast OK
into southwest/central MO appears somewhat more likely by early
evening, as a strengthening low-level jet becomes focused into the
region. It is possible that much of this development will be
slightly elevated to the north of the boundary, but moderate
buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of
large hail and locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest
cells/clusters. A tornado or two will also be possible if any cells
can be sustained along the boundary.
Some HREF members also indicate the potential for high-based
convection to emanate out of the southern High Plains and then
intensify later this evening as it encounters greater moisture and
instability. Any such thunderstorm clusters would potentially pose a
threat of large hail and locally strong wind gusts as they move
quickly east-northeastward.
..Dean/Lyons.. 04/10/2022
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