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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Sunday, April 10, 2022

SPC Apr 10, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 10 2022 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OK...SOUTHEAST KS...NORTHWEST AR...SOUTHWEST INTO EAST-CENTRAL MO... ...SUMMARY... Strong to severe thunderstorms may develop Sunday evening from parts of northeastern Oklahoma into Missouri. Large hail and damaging winds are expected to be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A longwave mid/upper-level trough will cover much of the central/western CONUS today. A prominent embedded shortwave trough will move from the central/northern Rockies into the upper Midwest by early Monday morning, with lower-amplitude perturbations moving through the broadly cyclonic flow further south across the central and southern Plains. A surface low initially over KS will move toward the upper Great Lakes in conjunction with the primary shortwave trough, while a secondary surface low develops across the southern High Plains along a trailing cold front. ...Oklahoma into the Ozark Plateau and Mid-MS Valley... Modest moisture return is expected to begin later this morning over parts of the southern Plains into the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, with dewpoints eventually rising into the 50s F across the warm sector. A stout EML will likely inhibit surface-based thunderstorm initiation for much of the day, but MLCAPE will steadily increase into the 1500-2000 J/kg range as robust diurnal heating occurs beneath very steep midlevel lapse rates. Moderate southwesterly flow aloft will provide sufficient deep-layer shear for storm organization, conditional upon initiation. The timing and location of storm initiation remain uncertain due to capping concerns and initially modest large-scale ascent. Initiation cannot be ruled out near the dryline/triple point across west-central/southwest OK during the late afternoon/early evening, but substantial MLCINH across the warm sector is expected to limit this potential. Initiation near the cold front from northeast OK into southwest/central MO appears somewhat more likely by early evening, as a strengthening low-level jet becomes focused into the region. It is possible that much of this development will be slightly elevated to the north of the boundary, but moderate buoyancy and sufficient deep-layer shear will support a threat of large hail and locally damaging wind gusts with the strongest cells/clusters. A tornado or two will also be possible if any cells can be sustained along the boundary. Some HREF members also indicate the potential for high-based convection to emanate out of the southern High Plains and then intensify later this evening as it encounters greater moisture and instability. Any such thunderstorm clusters would potentially pose a threat of large hail and locally strong wind gusts as they move quickly east-northeastward. ..Dean/Lyons.. 04/10/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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