SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0230 PM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not expected through tonight.
...20Z Update...
Overall conditions outlined in the previous discussion (appended
below) remain valid and on track. Only change for this outlook was
to include more of central and southwest PA in general thunder given
the deeper cores beginning to show up on radar imagery.
..Mosier.. 04/09/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1119 AM CDT Sat Apr 09 2022/
...Synopsis...
A few low-topped thunderstorms have formed as of late morning across
southern New England. The convection will persist through the
afternoon in conjunction with ascent attendant to a midlevel trough
ejecting northeastward over southern New England, and pockets of
weak buoyancy with surface heating in cloud breaks. Isolated
low-topped thunderstorms may also occur this afternoon across
southeast OH and WV with the midlevel thermal trough and an embedded
shortwave trough.
Otherwise, a midlevel trough will continue to slowly amplify over
the northern Rockies, as an associated cold front sags southward
into the central High Plains. Despite limited low-midlevel
moisture, isolated high-based thunderstorms may form this
afternoon/evening along the front, in the zone of ascent preceding
the midlevel trough. Given the high-based nature of the convection,
gusty outflow winds will be possible in the inverted-v environment.
Onshore flow and weak buoyancy will persist across western WA and
northwestern OR, and an embedded shortwave trough will approach this
area tonight. Occasional lightning flashes will be possible through
tonight in this regime.
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