SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1150 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022
Valid 011200Z - 021200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA
PENINSULA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of
the Florida Peninsula and southern High Plains today.
...Synopsis...
Moderate westerly winds aloft will persist over the Southeast as a
strong shortwave trough quickly exits the Northeast. A front will
linger over central FL, with ample moisture available for daytime
storms. To the west, a fast-moving shortwave trough will affect the
southern High Plains during the day, providing ascent over the TX
Panhandle. A cold front will surge south across this area, focusing
daytime high-based storms.
...TX Panhandle into western OK...
Strong heating will occur over NM and west TX, beneath cool
temperatures aloft. As the cold front and upper trough progress
east/southeast, the very steep lapse rates will result in sufficient
instability for high-based storms, possibly a line producing gusty
winds. Hail is not expected to be severe due to limited moisture
with dewpoints only in the 30s F. However, the lengthening
hodographs may aid organization of these storms, with threat ending
around 03Z.
...Central/Eastern FL...
Scattered storms are expected throughout the day along the stalled
front, as upper 60s F dewpoints and heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg
MUCAPE. Effective bulk shear around 35-40 kt may favor a few strong
cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind gusts, but low-level
shear is expected to remain weak.
..Jewell/Moore.. 04/01/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SMlw3L
