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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, April 1, 2022

SPC Apr 1, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1150 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...AND OVER THE CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may occur across parts of the Florida Peninsula and southern High Plains today. ...Synopsis... Moderate westerly winds aloft will persist over the Southeast as a strong shortwave trough quickly exits the Northeast. A front will linger over central FL, with ample moisture available for daytime storms. To the west, a fast-moving shortwave trough will affect the southern High Plains during the day, providing ascent over the TX Panhandle. A cold front will surge south across this area, focusing daytime high-based storms. ...TX Panhandle into western OK... Strong heating will occur over NM and west TX, beneath cool temperatures aloft. As the cold front and upper trough progress east/southeast, the very steep lapse rates will result in sufficient instability for high-based storms, possibly a line producing gusty winds. Hail is not expected to be severe due to limited moisture with dewpoints only in the 30s F. However, the lengthening hodographs may aid organization of these storms, with threat ending around 03Z. ...Central/Eastern FL... Scattered storms are expected throughout the day along the stalled front, as upper 60s F dewpoints and heating leads to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. Effective bulk shear around 35-40 kt may favor a few strong cells capable of marginally severe hail or wind gusts, but low-level shear is expected to remain weak. ..Jewell/Moore.. 04/01/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC