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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Thursday, March 31, 2022

SPC Mar 31, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0254 PM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022 Valid 312000Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA...CENTRAL MARYLAND...AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA...... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm gusts and a few tornadoes will remain possible through this evening from parts of the Carolinas into the Mid-Atlantic region and Hudson Valley. ...Mid Atlantic and Carolinas... Scattered thunderstorm development along a subtle pre-frontal confluence axis from central PA south into western VA and MD should continue and increase this afternoon and evening with the passage of an upper-level shortwave trough over northern NY. Marginal observed surface moisture (dewpoints in the upper 50s to low 60s F) should gradually improve ahead of these storms with dewpoints climbing into the low 60s F by this evening. While cloud cover has forestalled diurnal destabilization across eastern parts of PA and VA/MD so far, cloud breaks and improving surface moisture agree with regional RAP soundings showing the potential for weak destabilization (MLCAPE 250-500 J/kg) ahead of the developing storms farther west. VAD/VWPs show very strong wind fields with 0-1km flow of 50-60 kts. Despite the meager buoyancy and messy storm mode, bands of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts and perhaps a couple of tornadoes as they move east into the ENH area and eventually offshore this evening. For more info see MCD #378. Farther south across the Carolinas and southern VA, early afternoon thunderstorm development ahead of a speed max embedded within southwesterly flow aloft should continue into this evening. Widespread cloud cover has hampered diurnal destabilization somewhat, but strong flow aloft and large clockwise curved hodographs may support a continued risk for damaging gusts and a tornado or two within linear bands and semi-discrete storms. ...Northern Florida into southeast Georgia... A band of thunderstorms off the northwest FL coast should continue to move east-northeast this afternoon and evening. Gradual weakening of the system is expected as storms move away from large-scale forcing for ascent and low-level surface flow veers. Damaging wind gusts and a tornado or two will be possible with any stronger linear segments or weak supercells able to develop. However, decreasing buoyancy and ascent this evening should slowly diminish the severe threat after sunset. ..Lyons/Gleason.. 03/31/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT Thu Mar 31 2022/ ...VA into NY... Broad and strong southwesterly flow aloft is present today across much of the eastern US, with a strong shortwave trough moving across the upper OH Valley. Breaks in the clouds are resulting in pockets of heating across this area, which should yield at least marginal afternoon CAPE values. Storms have begun to strengthen along a pre-frontal axis over western PA. Model consensus shows multiple corridors of strengthening low-level winds through the day, which will help to enhance convergence and lead to more widespread intensifying thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. These fast-moving storms will pose a risk of damaging winds and isolated tornadoes. Have added an ENH risk area for this threat. ...Southeast... A broken line of thunderstorms extends from central GA into the FL Panhandle this morning. The air mass ahead of the line is moist and marginally unstable with dewpoints in the mid 60s to lower 70s and MLCAPE values around 500 J/kg. Shear remains very strong across the region, which may allow at least isolated cells to pose a damaging wind and tornado threat for much of the day as the low-level jet migrates northward into the Carolinas. Please refer to MCD #375 for further details. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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CHICAGO UTC-6 during CST (Central Standard Time, e.g., winter)
CHICAGO UTC-5 during CDT (Daylight Savings Time, e.g., summer)