SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0150 PM CST Wed Mar 09 2022
Valid 092000Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY
EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
A few damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible through
early evening from north Florida into eastern South Carolina.
...20z Update -- FL/GA/Carolinas...
Convection has been struggling to initiate along the slowly
south/southeastward sagging surface front this afternoon. This is
likely due to early morning convection across parts of GA/FL,
widespread cloudiness, and poor frontal convergence in the absence
of stronger large-scale ascent. The Marginal and Slight risk areas
have been trimmed based on latest surface observations, frontal
position, and latest model guidance trends. The 5 percent tornado
probability has been removed as veered low-level flow has become
less favorable for rotation in any more robust cells that may
develop. Nevertheless, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg amid effective
shear magnitudes of 35+ kt will conditionally support a few strong
to severe storms, mainly capable of locally damaging gusts, over the
next 2-4 hours.
Additional convection is expected to redevelop across parts of the
FL Panhandle into southern GA and the Carolinas overnight in a
continued warm advection regime. However, this activity is expected
to be elevated and pose little severe risk. Some Marginal risk for
damaging gusts may persist across parts of north FL overnight into
early Thursday morning closer to the effective frontal boundary.
..Leitman.. 03/09/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022/
...FL/GA/SC...
Two ongoing clusters of thunderstorms will likely persist through
the day, posing a risk of damaging winds or a couple of tornadoes.
One cluster is currently over the Big Bend region of FL, and will
track across north FL this afternoon. One persistent supercell
embedded within this cluster has shown occasional tornado potential.
The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and moderately unstable,
and convection is likely to continue eastward and offshore through
the day. Low level winds will slowly weaken and veer in this area,
so the extent of severe risk is uncertain. Nevertheless, given the
mesoscale organization of the cluster and sufficient parameter
space, will maintain the SLGT risk for this region.
The second cluster of storms is over east-central GA along the
primary surface boundary. These storms have weakened somewhat
during the past couple of hours, but will be moving through a moist
and unstable air mass over eastern SC this afternoon. Most model
solutions indicate that this activity re-intensifies, with a
potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or
two.
Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop late tonight over
parts of southern AL/GA and the FL panhandle. However, these storms
should be elevated above a relatively stable surface layer.
Therefore it appears the risk of severe storms is quite limited.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SLPYM9
