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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

SPC Mar 9, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0150 PM CST Wed Mar 09 2022 Valid 092000Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA INTO EASTERN SOUTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... A few damaging wind gusts and isolated hail are possible through early evening from north Florida into eastern South Carolina. ...20z Update -- FL/GA/Carolinas... Convection has been struggling to initiate along the slowly south/southeastward sagging surface front this afternoon. This is likely due to early morning convection across parts of GA/FL, widespread cloudiness, and poor frontal convergence in the absence of stronger large-scale ascent. The Marginal and Slight risk areas have been trimmed based on latest surface observations, frontal position, and latest model guidance trends. The 5 percent tornado probability has been removed as veered low-level flow has become less favorable for rotation in any more robust cells that may develop. Nevertheless, MLCAPE around 500-1000 J/kg amid effective shear magnitudes of 35+ kt will conditionally support a few strong to severe storms, mainly capable of locally damaging gusts, over the next 2-4 hours. Additional convection is expected to redevelop across parts of the FL Panhandle into southern GA and the Carolinas overnight in a continued warm advection regime. However, this activity is expected to be elevated and pose little severe risk. Some Marginal risk for damaging gusts may persist across parts of north FL overnight into early Thursday morning closer to the effective frontal boundary. ..Leitman.. 03/09/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1011 AM CST Wed Mar 09 2022/ ...FL/GA/SC... Two ongoing clusters of thunderstorms will likely persist through the day, posing a risk of damaging winds or a couple of tornadoes. One cluster is currently over the Big Bend region of FL, and will track across north FL this afternoon. One persistent supercell embedded within this cluster has shown occasional tornado potential. The air mass ahead of the storms is moist and moderately unstable, and convection is likely to continue eastward and offshore through the day. Low level winds will slowly weaken and veer in this area, so the extent of severe risk is uncertain. Nevertheless, given the mesoscale organization of the cluster and sufficient parameter space, will maintain the SLGT risk for this region. The second cluster of storms is over east-central GA along the primary surface boundary. These storms have weakened somewhat during the past couple of hours, but will be moving through a moist and unstable air mass over eastern SC this afternoon. Most model solutions indicate that this activity re-intensifies, with a potential for locally damaging wind gusts and perhaps a tornado or two. Thunderstorms are also expected to re-develop late tonight over parts of southern AL/GA and the FL panhandle. However, these storms should be elevated above a relatively stable surface layer. Therefore it appears the risk of severe storms is quite limited. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC