SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0134 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022
Valid 102000Z - 111200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY EVENING...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging thunderstorm winds and hail are possible over parts
of central Florida through this evening.
...20z Update -- Central FL...
The Slight risk has been adjusted to cover west-central portions of
the FL peninsula where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41 is currently in
effect. Latest mesoanalysis continues to indicated an environment
capable of supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with 1500-2000
J/kg MLCAPE and 45+ kt effective shear in place. Latest visible
satellite imagery shows some TCU beneath cirrus ahead of the
southward-sagging composite surface front. Convergence along the
surface boundary is modest, with low-level flow generally veered
toward the southwest. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe
thunderstorms appear possible over the next several hours, with
locally damaging wind gusts and hail the main hazards expected with
stronger storms through early evening.
..Leitman.. 03/10/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/
...FL...
Based on latest model trends and position of weak surface boundary
across central FL, have opted to upgrade a small area of the
east-central coast to SLGT risk. Low level flow is not particularly
strong, but deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized multicell
or occasional supercell storm structures capable of damaging winds,
hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The primary period of concern
appears to be from 19-01z as storms form over the central peninsula
and track eastward and interact with the sea-breeze. Please refer
to MCD #235 for further details.
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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