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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Thursday, March 10, 2022

SPC Mar 10, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0134 PM CST Thu Mar 10 2022 Valid 102000Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY EVENING... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging thunderstorm winds and hail are possible over parts of central Florida through this evening. ...20z Update -- Central FL... The Slight risk has been adjusted to cover west-central portions of the FL peninsula where Severe Thunderstorm Watch 41 is currently in effect. Latest mesoanalysis continues to indicated an environment capable of supporting strong to severe thunderstorms, with 1500-2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 45+ kt effective shear in place. Latest visible satellite imagery shows some TCU beneath cirrus ahead of the southward-sagging composite surface front. Convergence along the surface boundary is modest, with low-level flow generally veered toward the southwest. Nevertheless, a few strong to severe thunderstorms appear possible over the next several hours, with locally damaging wind gusts and hail the main hazards expected with stronger storms through early evening. ..Leitman.. 03/10/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1002 AM CST Thu Mar 10 2022/ ...FL... Based on latest model trends and position of weak surface boundary across central FL, have opted to upgrade a small area of the east-central coast to SLGT risk. Low level flow is not particularly strong, but deep-layer shear is sufficient for organized multicell or occasional supercell storm structures capable of damaging winds, hail, and perhaps a tornado or two. The primary period of concern appears to be from 19-01z as storms form over the central peninsula and track eastward and interact with the sea-breeze. Please refer to MCD #235 for further details. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC