SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1155 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered to isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be
possible over parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday.
Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes are
possible.
...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will encompass essentially the entire U.S.
Wednesday, with short-wave troughing moving across the
eastern/southeastern U.S. being the primary feature with respect to
convective weather.
At the surface, cold high pressure will prevail over the northern
half of the country, while a cold front moves slowly across the
southeastern states through the end of the period.
...Southeastern AL and the FL Panhandle east/northeast to southern
NC...
Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the
slowly advancing cold front at the start of the period, with some
severe risk indicated early across western portions of the Florida
Panhandle and into southeastern Alabama.
As the main short-wave trough -- moving east-northeastward across
the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys early in the period
passes by well to the north, a more subtle disturbance over the
western Gulf of Mexico early is forecast to shift east-northeastward
to the central Gulf Coast region by midday, and then across the
Southeast through the afternoon. As this occurs, a weak frontal
wave will move northeastward across the Carolinas. Ascent
associated with the upper system -- focused near the surface
low/front -- will likely maintain clusters of convection, though
modest instability should temper overall storm intensity across much
of the area, particularly with northward extent. Still, with strong
deep-layer west-southwesterly flow aloft, and some low-level veering
with height especially ahead of the surface low track, occasionally
organized/rotating updrafts will be possible. As such, an isolated
but all-hazards severe risk is expected across the Southeast as the
front makes gradual eastward progress. Risk should peak from late
morning through late afternoon, before diminishing into early
evening.
..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/09/2022
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