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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Wednesday, March 9, 2022

SPC Mar 9, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1155 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022 Valid 091200Z - 101200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA NORTHEASTWARD TO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NORTH CAROLINA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered to isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible over parts of the Southeast and Carolinas on Wednesday. Damaging wind, isolated hail, and a couple of tornadoes are possible. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will encompass essentially the entire U.S. Wednesday, with short-wave troughing moving across the eastern/southeastern U.S. being the primary feature with respect to convective weather. At the surface, cold high pressure will prevail over the northern half of the country, while a cold front moves slowly across the southeastern states through the end of the period. ...Southeastern AL and the FL Panhandle east/northeast to southern NC... Showers and thunderstorms are forecast to be ongoing ahead of the slowly advancing cold front at the start of the period, with some severe risk indicated early across western portions of the Florida Panhandle and into southeastern Alabama. As the main short-wave trough -- moving east-northeastward across the Mid Mississippi/Tennessee/Ohio Valleys early in the period passes by well to the north, a more subtle disturbance over the western Gulf of Mexico early is forecast to shift east-northeastward to the central Gulf Coast region by midday, and then across the Southeast through the afternoon. As this occurs, a weak frontal wave will move northeastward across the Carolinas. Ascent associated with the upper system -- focused near the surface low/front -- will likely maintain clusters of convection, though modest instability should temper overall storm intensity across much of the area, particularly with northward extent. Still, with strong deep-layer west-southwesterly flow aloft, and some low-level veering with height especially ahead of the surface low track, occasionally organized/rotating updrafts will be possible. As such, an isolated but all-hazards severe risk is expected across the Southeast as the front makes gradual eastward progress. Risk should peak from late morning through late afternoon, before diminishing into early evening. ..Goss/Squitieri.. 03/09/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC