SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022
Valid 082000Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT
ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of southeast
Louisiana, coastal Mississippi/Alabama, and the western Florida
Panhandle after midnight.
...20z Update -- Central Gulf Coast...
The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous
outlook. Surface-based convection is not expected until around/after
06z as the surface cold front begins to advance eastward into an
increasingly unstable boundary layer. The Marginal and Slight risk
areas have been nudged a small amount north/northeast based on
latest trends in RAP/HRRR operational guidance, as well as HRRR NN
probabilistic guidance indicating the corridor of severe potential
extending into far southern AL toward the end of the forecast
period. This guidance aligns well with the forecast track of the
surface low and coincides with favorable low-level forecast
hodographs from the RAP/NAM.
..Leitman.. 03/08/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022/
...Central Gulf Coast...
Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong trough rotating across NM
into TX. Increasing low-level warm advection and lift has spread
into east TX/LA, where numerous showers and thunderstorms have
developed. This activity is elevated above a cool/stable
near-surface layer, and is not expected to pose a severe threat
today.
By tonight, a warm front currently analyzed off the coast of MS/AL
will drift northward and onshore. This will allow very moist and at
least marginally unstable air to spread inland. As the primary cold
front approaches after midnight, scattered thunderstorms are
expected to form. 12z model guidance differs on placement and
intensity of activity. Nevertheless, there appears to be a window
of opportunity after midnight for a severe storm or two over the MS
Delta region of southeast LA into the coastal counties of MS/AL and
the western FL Panhandle. Strong low-level shear profiles and cool
temperatures aloft would support all hazards if a supercell or two
can form. Therefore have opted to upgrade a small area to SLGT
risk.
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