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Weather conditions on bar directly above are near Lakefront. Tabs under Moon Phases refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for SPC Convective outlook are updated daily with a live map a the beginning of the article. Touch or click map to get possible update, and follow link at end of article for referral to NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center. Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data were updated 24-48 hours after end of each day prior to Dec. 2020.

Tuesday, March 8, 2022

SPC Mar 8, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0143 PM CST Tue Mar 08 2022 Valid 082000Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms may affect parts of southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi/Alabama, and the western Florida Panhandle after midnight. ...20z Update -- Central Gulf Coast... The overall forecast philosophy remains unchanged from the previous outlook. Surface-based convection is not expected until around/after 06z as the surface cold front begins to advance eastward into an increasingly unstable boundary layer. The Marginal and Slight risk areas have been nudged a small amount north/northeast based on latest trends in RAP/HRRR operational guidance, as well as HRRR NN probabilistic guidance indicating the corridor of severe potential extending into far southern AL toward the end of the forecast period. This guidance aligns well with the forecast track of the surface low and coincides with favorable low-level forecast hodographs from the RAP/NAM. ..Leitman.. 03/08/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Tue Mar 08 2022/ ...Central Gulf Coast... Morning water vapor imagery shows a strong trough rotating across NM into TX. Increasing low-level warm advection and lift has spread into east TX/LA, where numerous showers and thunderstorms have developed. This activity is elevated above a cool/stable near-surface layer, and is not expected to pose a severe threat today. By tonight, a warm front currently analyzed off the coast of MS/AL will drift northward and onshore. This will allow very moist and at least marginally unstable air to spread inland. As the primary cold front approaches after midnight, scattered thunderstorms are expected to form. 12z model guidance differs on placement and intensity of activity. Nevertheless, there appears to be a window of opportunity after midnight for a severe storm or two over the MS Delta region of southeast LA into the coastal counties of MS/AL and the western FL Panhandle. Strong low-level shear profiles and cool temperatures aloft would support all hazards if a supercell or two can form. Therefore have opted to upgrade a small area to SLGT risk. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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