SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1138 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Valid 081200Z - 091200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL GULF COAST...
...SUMMARY...
A marginal risk for severe thunderstorms may develop tonight over
parts of the central Gulf Coast.
...Central Gulf Coast...
An upper-level trough will move across the Great Plains this
afternoon and evening as southwest mid-level flow remains in place
over the Southeast. A low-level jet will develop near the Texas
coast and move east-northeastward across the lower Mississippi
Valley, as a cold front advances southeastward across the region.
Ahead of the front, moisture advection will occur across the central
Gulf Coast. In response, a pocket of moderate instability is
forecast to move from the northern Gulf of Mexico into far southeast
Louisiana and far southern Mississippi this evening. Thunderstorms
are expected to develop near the front during the evening, where
low-level convergence will be maximized. These storms should persist
into the overnight period as the front moves southeastward across
the region.
NAM forecast soundings from New Orleans to near Biloxi at 06Z
tonight generally have MUCAPE near 1200 J/kg with effective shear
around 50 knots. This should be enough for marginally severe hail
and a few strong wind gusts with the stronger cells. Large-scale
ascent should remain relatively weak suggesting any severe threat
will remain localized and confined to the coastal areas of
Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and far western Florida. The threat
should be greatest from 06Z to 12Z later tonight.
..Broyles/Squitieri.. 03/08/2022
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