SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0149 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Valid 072000Z - 081200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN
GEORGIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES...
...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms
from the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians to the coastal
Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into this evening.
...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook
except for removing severe probabilities west of a squall line in
AL/GA.
..Smith.. 03/07/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022/
...Southern New England into Mid Atlantic...
A fast-moving shortwave trough over the OH Valley will race eastward
into New England and the Mid-Atlantic region later today. A surface
low will rapidly deepen over parts of NY/VT, while the attending
cold front sweeps eastward across parts of PA/WV/VA and into
southern New England tonight. The air mass ahead of the front is
only marginally moist/unstable with forecast soundings suggesting
MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg or less. However, all model guidance is
in agreement that intense low and mid level wind fields (50-70 knots
at 850mb) will develop across this area. A narrow line of
fast-moving shallow convection is likely to form along the cold
front posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Much of this
activity may occur with very limited lightning production. The
showers and thunderstorms will move offshore by mid-evening, ending
the severe threat.
...NC/SC into GA/AL...
A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has been moving across
parts of TN and northern AL. This activity has weakened
considerably this morning, with warming IR cloud tops and very
little lightning activity currently noted. The air mass ahead of
the line is moist with broken sunshine. This may result in
rejuvenation during the diurnal heating max (20-01z). Therefore,
have maintained a narrow corridor of SLGT risk for damaging wind
gusts later today. However, forecast confidence in this area in not
very high.
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