Temps | Gusts | WU KORD KPWK

CLICK for this month's BIG night sky ...




Cardinal SAT


MOBILE DEVICE? Turn sideways. Weather conditions directly above are near Lakefront. Top tabs refer to O'Hare (official).

Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, March 7, 2022

SPC Mar 7, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0149 PM CST Mon Mar 07 2022 Valid 072000Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NORTHERN GEORGIA NORTHWARD THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging wind gusts may accompany isolated thunderstorms from the Tennessee Valley and Appalachians to the coastal Mid-Atlantic this afternoon into this evening. ...Discussion... No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook except for removing severe probabilities west of a squall line in AL/GA. ..Smith.. 03/07/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1027 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022/ ...Southern New England into Mid Atlantic... A fast-moving shortwave trough over the OH Valley will race eastward into New England and the Mid-Atlantic region later today. A surface low will rapidly deepen over parts of NY/VT, while the attending cold front sweeps eastward across parts of PA/WV/VA and into southern New England tonight. The air mass ahead of the front is only marginally moist/unstable with forecast soundings suggesting MUCAPE values of 500 J/kg or less. However, all model guidance is in agreement that intense low and mid level wind fields (50-70 knots at 850mb) will develop across this area. A narrow line of fast-moving shallow convection is likely to form along the cold front posing a risk of locally damaging wind gusts. Much of this activity may occur with very limited lightning production. The showers and thunderstorms will move offshore by mid-evening, ending the severe threat. ...NC/SC into GA/AL... A line of showers and isolated thunderstorms has been moving across parts of TN and northern AL. This activity has weakened considerably this morning, with warming IR cloud tops and very little lightning activity currently noted. The air mass ahead of the line is moist with broken sunshine. This may result in rejuvenation during the diurnal heating max (20-01z). Therefore, have maintained a narrow corridor of SLGT risk for damaging wind gusts later today. However, forecast confidence in this area in not very high. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC