SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0223 AM CST Mon Mar 07 2022
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Scattered thunderstorms will be possible over portions of the
Southeast on Wednesday. The severe thunderstorm risk appears
relatively low at this time.
...Synopsis...
A longwave upper trough is expected to cover much of the CONUS again
on Wednesday. One embedded shortwave trough is forecast to move
quickly from the OH/TN Valley region Wednesday morning to offshore
of New England by evening. Upstream, one or more low-amplitude
vorticity maxima may emerge out of the Southwest and impact parts of
the Southern Plains and Southeast through the period. At the
surface, a nearly stationary front is expected to remain in place
from the northwest Gulf of Mexico northeastward into portions of the
Carolinas.
...Southeast...
Scattered thunderstorms are again possible over parts of the
Southeast on Wednesday. Much of this activity may be elevated to the
north of the front, but a few storms may become rooted near the
surface along and south of the boundary within a moist and weakly
capped environment. With strong midlevel southwesterly flow in
place, effective shear for near-surface-based storms will likely
support some storm organization. However, the northward extent of
the surface boundary remains uncertain, and large-scale ascent may
tend to weaken during the day as the midlevel trough initially over
the OH/TN Valley region moves quickly away from the region, so the
severe potential remains quite uncertain. Probabilities may
eventually be needed for areas near the Gulf Coast once mesoscale
details become clearer.
..Dean.. 03/07/2022
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