SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1136 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022
Valid 041200Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible during the day across portions of
the southwestern U.S. into western Colorado. Isolated thunderstorms
are also expected during the overnight hours downstream from
Nebraska into northern Iowa.
...Southwestern US into western CO...
After early-day convection across coastal southern CA, strong 500mb
speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the
southwestern US trough into western NM by late afternoon. Along and
north of this jet, cooling mid-level temperatures and steep lapse
rates will contribute to weak buoyancy. This likely will be adequate
for dry, high-based, and in some cases elevated convection. PWs are
expected to remain quite dry along a corridor from northern AZ into
western CO where values may only approach 0.40 inches. While
convection may struggle to produce appreciable precipitation, gusty
winds could accompany some of this convection, especially during the
afternoon when boundary-layer conditions are warmest.
...Central Plains to the upper MS Valley...
During the overnight hours, LLJ will respond to the approaching
short wave and increase markedly from KS into southeast MN. This
should aid some moisture return across the Plains resulting in PWs
increasing to near 0.80 inches within a strong warm-advection
regime. Forecast soundings exhibit adequate elevated instability if
lifting a parcel atop the boundary layer, near 850mb. Isolated
thunderstorms will likely develop from the central Plains to the
upper MS Valley late in the period. Instability does not appear
significant enough to warrant severe hail probabilities.
..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/04/2022
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