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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Friday, March 4, 2022

SPC Mar 4, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1136 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms are possible during the day across portions of the southwestern U.S. into western Colorado. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected during the overnight hours downstream from Nebraska into northern Iowa. ...Southwestern US into western CO... After early-day convection across coastal southern CA, strong 500mb speed max is forecast to translate through the base of the southwestern US trough into western NM by late afternoon. Along and north of this jet, cooling mid-level temperatures and steep lapse rates will contribute to weak buoyancy. This likely will be adequate for dry, high-based, and in some cases elevated convection. PWs are expected to remain quite dry along a corridor from northern AZ into western CO where values may only approach 0.40 inches. While convection may struggle to produce appreciable precipitation, gusty winds could accompany some of this convection, especially during the afternoon when boundary-layer conditions are warmest. ...Central Plains to the upper MS Valley... During the overnight hours, LLJ will respond to the approaching short wave and increase markedly from KS into southeast MN. This should aid some moisture return across the Plains resulting in PWs increasing to near 0.80 inches within a strong warm-advection regime. Forecast soundings exhibit adequate elevated instability if lifting a parcel atop the boundary layer, near 850mb. Isolated thunderstorms will likely develop from the central Plains to the upper MS Valley late in the period. Instability does not appear significant enough to warrant severe hail probabilities. ..Darrow/Wendt.. 03/04/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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