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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Friday, March 4, 2022

SPC Mar 4, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0146 PM CST Fri Mar 04 2022 Valid 042000Z - 051200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the western states to the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms are expected late tonight across the central Plains and Upper Midwest. ...20Z Update... Only minor changes have been made to various general thunderstorm areas to account for recent observational trends and latest short-term model guidance. ..Gleason.. 03/04/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Mar 04 2022/ ...California... A few weak thunderstorms may develop and continue this morning ahead of a shortwave trough moving onshore across southern CA. While onshore flow appears modest, steep lapse rates and forced ascent beneath cold 500 mb temperatures will allow weak destabilization to continue. As the trough moves northeastward this afternoon, thunderstorms are expected to gradually weaken and diminish in coverage as buoyancy becomes more limited. A few lightning strikes will also be possible later this afternoon and evening across the northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento Valleys, ahead of a second shortwave trough approaching the northwest CA Coast this evening. Again, surface moisture will be limited in quantity, but cool temperatures aloft and dynamic lift ahead of the trough may support a few thunderstorms. ...Four Corners and Rocky Mountains... As the southern-most shortwave ejects north and eastward through the afternoon and into this evening, lift will overspread much of the Great Basin and central Rockies. Cold temperatures beneath the core of the trough will allow weak destabilization despite relatively modest boundary-layer moisture. Isolated high-based thunderstorms will be possible late this afternoon and tonight. Some stronger surface wind gusts may also develop with this convection given the favorable thermodynamic profiles for evaporative cooling within stronger downdrafts. However, coverage and predictability of any organized severe threat appears to be below 5%. ...Central Plains/Upper Midwest... The shortwave trough and associated upper jet are forecast to continue northeastward across the Rockies and move into the central Plains/Upper Midwest late this evening and early Saturday. The increase in lift with the passage of the trough/jet will intensify a weak lee cyclone across southwestern NE and northeast CO overnight. A nocturnal low-level jet is also forecast to develop, aiding southerly return flow and elevated moisture transport northward ahead of the deepening surface low. Steepening mid-level lapse rates ahead of the trough, combined with increasing moisture content will allow elevated parcels to destabilize across the Plains mainly after 10 pm. A band of elevated convection appears likely to form from eastern NE and western IA in proximity to a frontal zone moving with the advancing the lee low. These storms should transit northeastward overnight with a low-end hail risk given the strong wind profiles aloft from the approaching upper-level jet. However, modest elevated buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor for greater severe potential, as the bulk of the deeper moisture appears poised to arrive after sunrise Saturday. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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