SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Mar 04 2022
Valid 042000Z - 051200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms remain possible today across parts of the
western states to the central Rockies. Isolated thunderstorms are
expected late tonight across the central Plains and Upper Midwest.
...20Z Update...
Only minor changes have been made to various general thunderstorm
areas to account for recent observational trends and latest
short-term model guidance.
..Gleason.. 03/04/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1022 AM CST Fri Mar 04 2022/
...California...
A few weak thunderstorms may develop and continue this morning ahead
of a shortwave trough moving onshore across southern CA. While
onshore flow appears modest, steep lapse rates and forced ascent
beneath cold 500 mb temperatures will allow weak destabilization to
continue. As the trough moves northeastward this afternoon,
thunderstorms are expected to gradually weaken and diminish in
coverage as buoyancy becomes more limited.
A few lightning strikes will also be possible later this afternoon
and evening across the northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento
Valleys, ahead of a second shortwave trough approaching the
northwest CA Coast this evening. Again, surface moisture will be
limited in quantity, but cool temperatures aloft and dynamic lift
ahead of the trough may support a few thunderstorms.
...Four Corners and Rocky Mountains...
As the southern-most shortwave ejects north and eastward through the
afternoon and into this evening, lift will overspread much of the
Great Basin and central Rockies. Cold temperatures beneath the core
of the trough will allow weak destabilization despite relatively
modest boundary-layer moisture. Isolated high-based thunderstorms
will be possible late this afternoon and tonight. Some stronger
surface wind gusts may also develop with this convection given the
favorable thermodynamic profiles for evaporative cooling within
stronger downdrafts. However, coverage and predictability of any
organized severe threat appears to be below 5%.
...Central Plains/Upper Midwest...
The shortwave trough and associated upper jet are forecast to
continue northeastward across the Rockies and move into the central
Plains/Upper Midwest late this evening and early Saturday. The
increase in lift with the passage of the trough/jet will intensify a
weak lee cyclone across southwestern NE and northeast CO overnight.
A nocturnal low-level jet is also forecast to develop, aiding
southerly return flow and elevated moisture transport northward
ahead of the deepening surface low. Steepening mid-level lapse rates
ahead of the trough, combined with increasing moisture content will
allow elevated parcels to destabilize across the Plains mainly after
10 pm. A band of elevated convection appears likely to form from
eastern NE and western IA in proximity to a frontal zone moving with
the advancing the lee low. These storms should transit northeastward
overnight with a low-end hail risk given the strong wind profiles
aloft from the approaching upper-level jet. However, modest elevated
buoyancy will be the primary limiting factor for greater severe
potential, as the bulk of the deeper moisture appears poised to
arrive after sunrise Saturday.
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