SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0156 PM CST Thu Mar 03 2022
Valid 032000Z - 041200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are expected across portions of southern
California tonight.
...Discussion...
Analysis of the latest model and observational data continues to
suggest that mid-level destabilization across southern California,
expected to occur overnight as a mid-level low approaches the
region, will support low-topped showers and a few thunderstorms.
Therefore, no changes appear to be needed with respect to the
ongoing oulook.
..Goss.. 03/03/2022
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1015 AM CST Thu Mar 03 2022/
...Southern CA...
No changes have been made to the existing forecast. A compact upper
low is approaching southern CA. This feature will be accompanied by
a pocket of cold temperatures aloft, marginal instability, and
enhanced large-scale lift. This should be sufficient for scattered
showers and a few thunderstorms along/behind the front as it moves
ashore after midnight. Gusty winds or small hail could accompany the
strongest cells, but organized severe storms appear unlikely.
...Central CA...
A burst of lightning activity has been recently noted along a line
of convection extending roughly from San Jose to west of Sacramento.
While there is some potential that further lightning flashes will
occur in this region, weak and weakening instability fields suggest
that the overall threat is expected to remain below 10% coverage.
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