SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022
Valid 291630Z - 301200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT FROM THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY INTO CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight, from the
lower Missouri Valley region to central Texas. Damaging gusts, hail
and a few tornadoes are possible.
A deep upper low over western AZ is tracking eastward across the
southern Rockies today, with the primary upper jet max forecast to
rotate through the base of the trough and across much of the
southern Plains tonight. As this occurs, three different regimes of
strong/severe convection are expected.
...Eastern NE/Western IA...
The main surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves into
east-central NE by early evening. Southeasterly low-level winds
will help transport a narrow corridor of 50s dewpoints and
surface-based instability into parts of eastern NE and western IA,
where CAM guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will
form. These storms will only briefly be surface-based before they
track northward across the warm front into a cooler/stable
boundary-layer. There is a chance of a brief tornado or two before
the storms become elevated, after which the main threat will be hail
and gusty winds.
...Eastern KS/Western MO/Southern IA...
A surface dryline is expected to become established later today from
western OK into central KS. Temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints
rising into the mid/upper 50s along the boundary will help to weaken
the cap and lead to scattered thunderstorms - mainly after 23z.
This activity should persist through the evening as cooling aloft
and the primary cold front move into the region. Initial storms may
be supercellular with all severe hazards possible. A gradual
evolution to a QLCS is expected by mid-evening with damaging winds
and isolated mesovortex spin-ups being the main threats.
...Southern OK into West-central TX...
Surface temperatures over 90F are expected just west of the dryline
over southwest OK and west-central TX this afternoon, resulting in a
narrow corridor of weak cap. A few thunderstorms may form in this
area, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast soundings
show a formidable cap is present as storms evolve off the dryline
and into the warm sector. Increasing large-scale forcing will
arrive after dark, helping to weaken the cap and foster more
widespread convection. However, linear convective modes are likely
by that time with locally damaging wind gusts the main threat.
..Hart/Wendt.. 03/29/2022
Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
http://dlvr.it/SMbVNH
