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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Tuesday, March 29, 2022

SPC Mar 29, 2022 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0258 PM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022 Valid 292000Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY TO CENTRAL TEXAS... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are expected this evening and tonight from the lower Missouri Valley region to central Texas. Damaging gusts, severe hail, and a few tornadoes are all possible. ...20Z Update... Convection should initiate across parts of south-central KS near the triple point around 22-00Z. Increasing but still relatively modest low-level moisture, steep mid-level lapse rates, and strong deep-layer shear should support organized thunderstorms across this region. Severe hail and damaging winds will be a threat with any supercells that can develop and spread into eastern KS/western MO and vicinity this evening. There will also be a window during the mid to late evening for a few tornadoes as low-level shear increases with a strengthening low-level jet, but before the boundary layer stabilizes. Have expanded the 5% tornado area a little to account for this potential. Also nudged severe probabilities westward slightly in western OK to where recent high-resolution guidance suggests storms may initiate along the dryline by 01-02Z. Across northeast NE/northwest IA and vicinity, have compressed severe hail probabilities to where destabilization appears most likely to occur by later this evening. The northward extent of the severe threat should quickly wane as convection moves northeastward into a less unstable airmass. Thunderstorms are still expected to develop mainly after 00Z this evening across parts of west/central TX as the cap along the dryline slowly erodes and large-scale ascent associated with an upper trough overspreads this region. Damaging winds should be the main threat as convection quickly grows upscale, but some large hail may occur within the first few hours of convective initiation given the presence of steep mid-level lapse rates and strong effective bulk shear. ..Gleason.. 03/29/2022 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1124 AM CDT Tue Mar 29 2022/ A deep upper low over western AZ is tracking eastward across the southern Rockies today, with the primary upper jet max forecast to rotate through the base of the trough and across much of the southern Plains tonight. As this occurs, three different regimes of strong/severe convection are expected. ...Eastern NE/Western IA... The main surface low is forecast to deepen as it moves into east-central NE by early evening. Southeasterly low-level winds will help transport a narrow corridor of 50s dewpoints and surface-based instability into parts of eastern NE and western IA, where CAM guidance is in agreement that scattered thunderstorms will form. These storms will only briefly be surface-based before they track northward across the warm front into a cooler/stable boundary-layer. There is a chance of a brief tornado or two before the storms become elevated, after which the main threat will be hail and gusty winds. ...Eastern KS/Western MO/Southern IA... A surface dryline is expected to become established later today from western OK into central KS. Temperatures in the 80s and dewpoints rising into the mid/upper 50s along the boundary will help to weaken the cap and lead to scattered thunderstorms - mainly after 23z. This activity should persist through the evening as cooling aloft and the primary cold front move into the region. Initial storms may be supercellular with all severe hazards possible. A gradual evolution to a QLCS is expected by mid-evening with damaging winds and isolated mesovortex spin-ups being the main threats. ...Southern OK into West-central TX... Surface temperatures over 90F are expected just west of the dryline over southwest OK and west-central TX this afternoon, resulting in a narrow corridor of weak cap. A few thunderstorms may form in this area, capable of large hail and damaging winds. Forecast soundings show a formidable cap is present as storms evolve off the dryline and into the warm sector. Increasing large-scale forcing will arrive after dark, helping to weaken the cap and foster more widespread convection. However, linear convective modes are likely by that time with locally damaging wind gusts the main threat. Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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