SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Valid 281200Z - 291200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the western
United States.
...Western US...
Pronounced upper low is currently located off the CA Coast near 129W
longitude. Strong mid-level speed max is forecast to eject through
the base of the trough into the northern Baja Peninsula during the
evening, before translating across northwestern Mexico into
southeastern AZ by 29/12z. Notable mid-level height falls will
spread north of the jet across much of the western US, though more
concentrated across the southwestern portions of the country. Latest
model guidance suggests low-latitude Pacific front will surge inland
across southern CA during the afternoon. Onshore flow and cooling
profiles will become increasingly buoyant within a strongly sheared
environment in the surface-6km layer. However, lowest 3km wind
fields/shear are not forecast to be that significant. Thus, while
convection may pose some threat for longevity/organization, forecast
profiles do not suggest any meaningful threat for severe wind/hail.
Isolated thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the
Great Basin and northern interior Rockies, mostly during daylight
hours. Convective threat will then spread across the lower CO River
Valley into AZ/southern UT during the overnight hours as the
aforementioned speed max/trough shift east after sunset.
..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/28/2022
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