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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.

Monday, March 28, 2022

SPC Mar 28, 2022 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1227 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Valid 281200Z - 291200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Isolated thunderstorms are possible across portions of the western United States. ...Western US... Pronounced upper low is currently located off the CA Coast near 129W longitude. Strong mid-level speed max is forecast to eject through the base of the trough into the northern Baja Peninsula during the evening, before translating across northwestern Mexico into southeastern AZ by 29/12z. Notable mid-level height falls will spread north of the jet across much of the western US, though more concentrated across the southwestern portions of the country. Latest model guidance suggests low-latitude Pacific front will surge inland across southern CA during the afternoon. Onshore flow and cooling profiles will become increasingly buoyant within a strongly sheared environment in the surface-6km layer. However, lowest 3km wind fields/shear are not forecast to be that significant. Thus, while convection may pose some threat for longevity/organization, forecast profiles do not suggest any meaningful threat for severe wind/hail. Isolated thunderstorms are also expected across portions of the Great Basin and northern interior Rockies, mostly during daylight hours. Convective threat will then spread across the lower CO River Valley into AZ/southern UT during the overnight hours as the aforementioned speed max/trough shift east after sunset. ..Darrow/Bentley.. 03/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC