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Archives for the SPC Convective Outlook are updated daily (approximately) with a live map at the beginning of each article. Follow the link at the end of the article to check for current updates on the NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center website. Also, see Archives for Chicago's hourly weather data on CARDINAL NEWS Magazine.


Monday, March 28, 2022

SPC Mar 28, 2022 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook

SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022 Valid 301200Z - 311200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL/EASTERN LA...MUCH OF MS...AND WESTERN AL... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes are expected across much of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and Southeast. ...Lower/Mid MS Valley...Southeast... A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from central KS through the TX Hill Country early Wednesday morning. This shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward throughout the day, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong mid-level flow will accompany this through, with 100+ kt at 500 kt stretching from southeast TX northeastward through the Mid-South Wednesday afternoon. Very strong low-level flow will precede this feature, with a large area of 60+ at 850 mb expected across the MS Valley Wednesday afternoon. A convective line should be ongoing Wednesday morning, likely extending from the Ozark Plateau southwestward across eastern OK into northeast TX. This line is forecast to move eastward throughout the day, forced by the strong ascent attendant to the shortwave trough mentioned above. The downstream air mass is expected to be moist, but not overly buoyant due to widespread showers/cloudiness and poor lapse rates across the warm sector. Even so, the very strong kinematic profiles will likely support an invigoration or intensification of the convective line as it moves eastward into the Lower MS Valley. Primary threat with the line will be strong gusts, although embedded/QLCS tornadoes are possible as well. Potential exists for a well-organized convective line capable of significant wind gusts (i.e. at least 74 mph). The supercell/tornado potential ahead of the line is a bit more uncertain. While the kinematic profiles certainly support long-lived supercells capable of strong tornadoes, whether or not discrete development can organize within the warm sector remains questionable. The fast-moving character of the anticipated convective line will likely limit the duration of any warm sector development. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures across the warm sector could act to suppress deep convection. These uncertainties preclude introducing higher severe probabilities with this outlook. ..Mosier.. 03/28/2022 Read more CHECK UPDATE ZOOM GRAPHIC
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