SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Mon Mar 28 2022
Valid 301200Z - 311200Z
...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
CENTRAL/EASTERN LA...MUCH OF MS...AND WESTERN AL...
...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms capable of severe wind gusts and tornadoes are
expected across much of the Lower/Middle Mississippi Valley and
Southeast.
...Lower/Mid MS Valley...Southeast...
A strong southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from
central KS through the TX Hill Country early Wednesday morning. This
shortwave is expected to progress eastward/northeastward throughout
the day, becoming increasingly negatively tilted as it does. Strong
mid-level flow will accompany this through, with 100+ kt at 500 kt
stretching from southeast TX northeastward through the Mid-South
Wednesday afternoon. Very strong low-level flow will precede this
feature, with a large area of 60+ at 850 mb expected across the MS
Valley Wednesday afternoon.
A convective line should be ongoing Wednesday morning, likely
extending from the Ozark Plateau southwestward across eastern OK
into northeast TX. This line is forecast to move eastward throughout
the day, forced by the strong ascent attendant to the shortwave
trough mentioned above. The downstream air mass is expected to be
moist, but not overly buoyant due to widespread showers/cloudiness
and poor lapse rates across the warm sector. Even so, the very
strong kinematic profiles will likely support an invigoration or
intensification of the convective line as it moves eastward into the
Lower MS Valley. Primary threat with the line will be strong gusts,
although embedded/QLCS tornadoes are possible as well. Potential
exists for a well-organized convective line capable of significant
wind gusts (i.e. at least 74 mph).
The supercell/tornado potential ahead of the line is a bit more
uncertain. While the kinematic profiles certainly support long-lived
supercells capable of strong tornadoes, whether or not discrete
development can organize within the warm sector remains
questionable. The fast-moving character of the anticipated
convective line will likely limit the duration of any warm sector
development. Additionally, warm mid-level temperatures across the
warm sector could act to suppress deep convection. These
uncertainties preclude introducing higher severe probabilities with
this outlook.
..Mosier.. 03/28/2022
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